Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Fighting Illini NCAAB Betting prediction

Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Prediction 1/11/2024

The Michigan State Spartans (9-6) travel to face off against the Illinois Fighting Illini (11-3) on Thursday, January 11th. This game will be played at State Farm Center in Champaign and televised on FS1. Both Michigan State and Illinois will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 ET.

Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Fighting Illini

The Michigan State Spartans Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Michigan State enters tonight’s game as a 3.5-point underdog. So far this season, the Spartans have been the underdog in three games, going 1-2 in those contests. Over their last 10 road games, Michigan State has gone just 3-7.

Coming into tonight’s game, the Spartans are 9-6 overall and 1-3 in Big Ten play. In their last game, they fell to Northwestern by a score of 88-74. For the season, Michigan State has gone 0-2 on the road, while they are 9-4 at home.

Michigan State has an ATS record of 8-7 this season, but they are just 1-2 vs. the spread as the underdog. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Spartans have gone just 3-7 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 149.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Michigan State’s games this season (142.7). So far, 13 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s line. Over their last three games, their games have averaged 158 points compared to their season average of 143.9 points per game. Currently, their over/under record for the season is 8-7.

The Illinois Fighting Illini Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Illinois comes into this game as the favorite, as they have been in 10 of their 14 games so far this season. They have gone 9-1 in those games, and their overall record is 11-3. At home, they have been even better, going 9-1, and their average scoring margin is +20.4.

After losing their last game to Purdue by a score of 83-78, the Fighting Illini will look to get back on track. They have been great at home recently, going 5-0 in their last five games.

As the favorite this season, Illinois has gone 5-4-1 against the spread. At home, their ATS mark is 5-4-1. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Illini are also 5-4-1 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 149.5 is right in line with the average over/under line in Illinois’ games this season (146.9). So far, their over/under record is 8-6. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 165 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 7-3.

Michigan State Offense Breakdown

In their most recent game, the Spartans’ offense tallied 74 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 78 points per game. On the offensive front, the Spartans have a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, ranking 52nd nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 123rd in terms of percentage and 247th in three-pointers made.

Tyson Walker (G) 20.6 2.9 2.9
A.J Hoggard (G) 11.3 3.2 5.1
Jaden Akins (G) 10.7 4.1 1.3

Illinois Offense Breakdown

The Illinois offense is coming off a game where they scored 78 points against Purdue. They posted a field goal percentage of 42.6% and connected on 8 threes. Terrence Shannon Jr. is leading the team in scoring at 21.7 points per contest. Marcus Domask has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 14.1 going into the game.

Terrence Shannon Jr. (G) 21.7 4.5 2.5
Marcus Domask (F) 14.1 4.5 3.2
Quincy Guerrier (F) 11.5 7.6 0.2

Michigan State Team Defense

So far, the Spartans’ defense is ranked 56th in the country at 65.9 points per contest. The Michigan State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 88 points and allowed Northwestern to connect on 9 threes.

Illinois Team Defense

The Fighting Illini’s defense is presently ranked 74th nationally, allowing an average of 66.8 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Illinois’ defense has allowed opponents to shoot 38.6% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 33.0% this season.

Spartans vs Fighting Illini Trends

  • Across their three previous road games, Michigan State has an ATS mark of 0-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 0-3 while averaging 79 points per game.
  • Across the Fighting Illini last ten home games, the team averaged 75 points per game while allowing 76. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 6-3-1, while going 2-8 straight-up.
  • The last five games that Michigan State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
  • In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Fighting Illini have a straight up record of 9-1 and an ATS mark of 5-4-1.

Spartans vs Fighting Illini Prediction

The Fighting Illini is our pick to not only win with a projected score of 76-68. But we also favor them to cover the spread. Our bet is on the Fighting Illini at -3.5.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 149.5, and our model projects the Spartans and Fighting Illini to reach a combined total of 144 points. Our bet is on taking the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.