Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue NCAAB Betting Prediction

Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue Prediction 3/15/2024

The Michigan State Spartans (18-13) travel to face off against the Purdue Boilermakers (28-3) on Friday, March 15th. This game will be played at Target Center in Minneapolis and televised on BTN. Purdue is coming off a win in their previous game, while Michigan State is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Indiana. Tip-off is set for 12:00 ET.

Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue Boilermakers

The Michigan State Spartans Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Michigan State enters this game as a 6.5-point underdog, and they are 2-5 in their seven games as the underdog this season. They have an overall record of 18-13, and they are 10-10 in Big Ten play.

On the road this season, the Spartans have gone just 3-7, and they have lost their last two games away from home. For the year, they have been outscored by an average of 2.9 points per game on the road.

Michigan State has an overall ATS record of 17-14 this season, going 5-5 vs. the spread on the road. As the underdog, the Spartans have gone 4-3 vs. the spread this year and are 5-5 in their last 10 games as the road underdog.

Today’s over/under line of 143.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Michigan State games this season (141.8). For the year, their over/under record is 13-18. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 124 points and their over/under record is 1-2.

The Purdue Boilermakers Are Coming Off A Win

With a record of 19-0 at home this season, Purdue is the clear favorite against Michigan State, as they have been in 29 of their 31 games. The Boilermakers have won their last five games and come into this one with an overall record of 28-3.

Purdue has been rolling at home, as they have won their last 10 games in front of their fans, and they are averaging a scoring margin of +19.3 points per game. Their average scoring margin on the road is +5.5 points per game.

As the favorite this season, Purdue has gone 14-13-2 vs. the spread. Their ATS record at home is 10-8-1, but over their last 10 games as the favorite, they are just 3-7.

Today’s over/under line of 143.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Purdue games this season (148.3). The over/under record for the Boilermakers this season is 20-10-1. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

Michigan State Offense Breakdown

In contrast to their season average of 73.4 points per game, the Michigan State had a below average performance. They scored 64 points against Indiana and had a field goal percentage of 38.5%. Offensively, the Spartans hold a season-long field goal percentage of 46%, placing them 116th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 106th in terms of percentage and 272nd in three-pointers made.

Tyson Walker (G) 18.4 2.9 3
Malik Hall (F) 12.7 5.7 2
A.J Hoggard (G) 10.9 3.1 5

Purdue Offense Breakdown

The Purdue offense is coming off a game in which they scored 78 points vs. Wisconsin. Overall their field goal percentage was 49.1% while connecting on 9 threes. Leading the team in scoring was Zach Edey with 25 points. Fletcher Loyer also added 15 points for the Boilermakers.

Zach Edey (C) 24.2 11.7 2.0
Braden Smith (G) 13.0 5.9 7.2
Lance Jones (G) 12.4 2.7 2.1

Michigan State Team Defense

The Spartans’ defense is presently ranked 30th nationally, allowing an average of 65.9 points per contest. Against Indiana, the Spartans’ defense gave up 65 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Indiana only made 5 free-throws.

Purdue Team Defense

The Boilermakers’ defense is presently ranked 123rd nationally, allowing an average of 70.2 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Michigan State, the Purdue defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Purdue made 17 free-throws vs. the Boilermakers.

Spartans vs Boilermakers Trends

  • Michigan State has a 2-3 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 69 points per game while allowing 67. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
  • Through their last ten home games, Purdue has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 77 points per game.
  • Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Michigan State has an ATS mark of 4-1 while going 2-3 straight up.
  • Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Boilermakers have gone 3-7 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 9-1.

Spartans vs Boilermakers Prediction

For a pick on the point-spread in this Boilermakers vs. Spartans matchup, our bet is to grab the Spartans at +6.5. Even though our projections have the Boilermakers winning 75-70, we see the Spartans as the play on the point-spread.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 143.5 and given that our model is projecting 145 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.