The Boston Red Sox (18-15) travel to face off against the Minnesota Twins (18-13) on Saturday, May 4th. This game will be played at Target Field in Minneapolis and televised on NESN. The Twins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Red Sox are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Twins. First pitch is set for 2:10 ET.
Red Sox vs Twins
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Red Sox series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -118 and squeaked out a 5-2 win. Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Red Sox could only muster one more run in the 7th inning. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th and tacked on two insurance runs in the 6th.
Chris Paddack got the win for the Twins, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued a season-high five walks. Jhoan Duran got the save. Tanner Houck had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss.
Rafael Devers was the only player in the Red Sox lineup to have more than one hit. He went 2/3 with two RBIs. Willi Castro did the most damage for the Twins, going 2/3 with two runs scored.
Boston is on the road today vs. the Twins, having lost two straight games. These two losses have the Red Sox 3rd in the AL East, 3.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they have yet to win a game vs. another AL East team (0-3).
As the road team, the Red Sox are 11-6 this year compared to 7-9 at home. Boston has been good as the favorite this year, going 9-5, and they are 9-10 when the underdog. The Red Sox are currently on a two-game losing streak on the road, and they are 6-6 as the road underdog this year.
When the Red Sox are on the road, they have been a solid bet on the run line, going 12-5 this season. They have covered the run line in two straight games, but they have not been a good bet at home, going just 6-10. Overall, their average run margin is 1.1 runs per game, but that number jumps to 2.4 runs per game when they are on the road.
The Boston Red Sox have gone under the total in four straight games and have an over/under record of 13-17 on the season. The average combined run total in their games this season is 8.1 runs per game. The over/under line for today’s game against the Minnesota Twins is set at 7.5 runs, and the Red Sox have gone 3-6 in games with that line this season. Overall, 72.7% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s 7.5 runs.
Brennan Bernardino Gets The Start For The Red Sox
Brennan Bernardino is getting the start for the Red Sox today and has made one previous start this season. In that outing, he went 1 1/3 innings and didn’t give up a run. He finished with a no-decision in that appearance. Bernardino has made a total of 10 appearances out of the bullpen this year and has a record of 0-1 with a .73 ERA. Opponents are batting just .103 this season off Bernardino. His WHIP for the season is .81, and he is averaging 8.03 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 4.38 walks.
Red Sox Offense Breakdown
Over the last nine games, Rafael Devers has been on fire for the Red Sox, going 15/32 (.469) with six runs scored and five RBIs. Devers is also currently on a nine-game hitting streak. Tyler O’Neill and Connor Wong have also been swinging the bat well of late, with O’Neill going 10/37 in his last nine games and Wong hitting .407 over his last eight games.
So far, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a good home run hitting team so far and have the league’s 7th best team batting average. As a team, they are also 7th in on-base percentage and OPS.
Minnesota is hosting the Red Sox today with an overall record of 18-13, and they have won 11 straight games. The Twins are 3rd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 1.5 games. So far, they have gone 12-7 against other teams in the AL Central.
As the Twins have been favored in 21 of their games, they have gone 16-5 in those matchups. As for their games as the underdog, they are just 2-8. Minnesota has been good on the road at 11-7 and a game above .500 at home (7-6). The Twins’ overall series record is 4-4-2, and they have won three straight series overall.
Minnesota has been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 16-15. They have been especially good on the road, going 11-7. They have covered the run line in their last three home games and are 12-9 as the favorite this season. Their average run margin in wins is +3.6, while it is -3.6 in losses.
Minnesota’s over/under record for the season is 15-15, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 2-3, and the combined run average in their games this season is 9.0 runs per game. In the last 10 games, the Twins have gone over the total in 6 of them. The over/under line for today’s game against the Red Sox is set at 7.5 runs.
Pablo López Gets The Start For The Twins
Pablo López gets the start for the Twins today and comes into the game with a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.83. So far, he has made six starts and has pitched 31 2/3 innings. López has turned in two quality starts this year and is averaging 10.52 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up four earned runs on eight hits. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without taking the loss. López has given up at least one homer in each of his last three starts.
Twins Offense Breakdown
Willi Castro has been on a tear for the Twins of late, going 10/20 in his last five games. For the season, he is batting .282 with two homers. Edouard Julien has a team-high seven homers but is batting just .222. Ryan Jeffers has been the Twins’ best power hitter, as his five homers are 2nd on the team and 6th in the league. Jeffers also leads the team with 21 RBIs.
As a team, the Twins are 8th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are 11th in home runs and have the league’s 3rd best ISO. Collectively, the Twins are batting .239.
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction
Our predicted score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Red Sox, which means there is some good value in taking them on the money line at +148. If you prefer to bet on the over/under, we would recommend taking the over at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Pablo Lopez is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Brennan Bernardino, who we have finishing with four. However, we have Lopez finishing with a higher ERA than Bernardino, and we have the Red Sox finishing with the win.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:May 4, 2024 Red Sox, Twins