Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 5/7/2024

The Arizona Diamondbacks (15-20) travel to face off against the Cincinnati Reds (16-18) on Tuesday, May 7th. This game will be played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and televised on BSOH. The Diamondbacks are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Reds are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Orioles. First pitch is set for 6:40 ET.

Diamondbacks vs Reds

arizona diamondbacks nba

The Diamondbacks’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Padres, closing out their series with an 11-4 win. After allowing three runs to the Padres in the top of the first, the Diamondbacks responded with four runs of their own. Arizona went on to add another four runs in the 4th inning.

Ryne Nelson got the start for the Diamondbacks, going five innings and giving up four earned runs on eight hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and got the win.

Arizona is 15-20 overall this season, and they are eight games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Diamondbacks lost two of three games to the Padres in their most recent series. So far, they have gone 9-8 in divisional games.

At home, the Diamondbacks are 9-10 compared to 6-10 on the road. Arizona has dropped four straight games as the favorite, and they are 8-8 overall when favored this year. As for their record as the underdog, the Diamondbacks are 7-12. Heading into today’s game, they have lost four straight series and are 3-7-1 overall in series play.

Arizona is 16-19 against the run line this season, including a 7-9 mark on the road. The Diamondbacks have been favored in 16 games, going just 6-10 against the run line. They have been the underdog in 19 games, going 10-9 against the run line. Arizona’s average run differential is +0.2 runs per game, but that number jumps to +0.4 on the road. The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in six straight games when they are the underdog.

The Diamondbacks have seen their last two games go over the total, with 15 and 14 runs scored in those contests. On the season, the Diamondbacks have gone over the total in 15 of their 34 games (44.1%). The Diamondbacks’ games have averaged 9.8 runs per game this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs.

Zac Gallen Gets The Start For The Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen will be looking to bounce back from a couple of rough outings as he gets the start for the Diamondbacks today. He is coming off back-to-back losses, most recently giving up three earned runs in five innings of work to the Mariners. Looking at his road numbers, Gallen is 0-2 with a 6.6 ERA. At home, he is 3-0 with a 0.6 ERA. Overall, his record is 3-2, and his ERA is 3.38. Opponents have a batting average of .242 off Gallen this season. So far, he has made two quality starts.

Diamondbacks Offense Breakdown

Christian Walker has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/17 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .280 with a team-high seven home runs. Walker’s 24 RBIs are also the best mark on the team and 8th in the league. Ketel Marte is batting .307 this season and is on a seven-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Diamondbacks are 5th in the league in runs scored at 5 per game. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and are batting a collective .249, which is 7th in the league. Overall, their team on-base percentage is 5th in the league and they have been tough to strike out this season.

The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Orioles with an 11-1 loss. Cincinnati was actually the slight favorite at home going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Orioles scored three times in the first.

Nick Lodolo got the start for the Reds and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up four earned runs on four hits. The Reds also issued five walks and hit a batter. Baltimore’s offense scored their 11 runs on just three home runs.

Cincinnati opens their series vs. the Diamondbacks having lost five straight games, and they are 16-18 overall this season. The Reds are 4th in the NL Central, four games behind the Brewers for the division lead. Cincinnati dropped the final two games of their series vs. the White Sox and then were swept by the Orioles in a three-game series.

At home, the Reds are 9-10 this season, and they are 7-8 on the road. So far, they have dropped four straight games as the home underdog. As the favorite, the Reds are 10-7 this year and 6-11 when going into a game as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 4-6-1, and they have lost three straight series.

When the Reds are favored, they are 9-8 on the run line. When they are the underdog, they are 8-9. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.2, while it’s -3.6 in losing games. Their overall run line record is 17-17, with a run line record of 9-6 on the road and 8-11 at home. They have failed to cover the run line in four straight home games.

Today’s over/under line of 9 runs for the Cincinnati Reds’ game against the Arizona Diamondbacks is right in line with the Reds’ season average of 8.8 runs per game. The Reds have played 33 games this season, and 17 of them have had over/under lines set lower than 9 runs. In games with over/under lines set at 9 runs, the over has gone 1-5-1.

Frankie Montas Gets The Start For The Reds

Frankie Montas is getting the start for the Reds today at home against the Diamondbacks. Montas has a 1-1 record through his first 3 starts of the season. He has a win and 2 no-decisions, but in his last start, he took the loss, giving up 5 runs in 2 innings of work.

Reds Offense Breakdown

cincinnati reds

Elly De La Cruz comes into today’s game as the Reds’ top hitter, with a batting average of .271 and a team-leading eight home runs. However, he has struggled of late, going 6/31 in his last eight games. Jonathan India has been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/28 in his last eight games with six RBIs. For the season, India is batting .242 with one home run.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their team batting average of .210 is 21st in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. So far, they have been a below-average home run hitting team.

Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

Our pick for today’s Diamondbacks vs. Reds game is to take the Reds on the money line at +108. We have the Reds winning this one by a score of 6-4. With the money line payout, there is a good amount of value in taking the Reds to win outright, rather than looking at the over/under line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Frankie Montas has a better chance of picking up a win than Zac Gallen, and we have Montas finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Gallen, who is projected to finish with six.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.