New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 5/21/2024

The New York Mets (21-26) travel to face off against the Cleveland Guardians (31-17) on Tuesday, May 21st. This game will be played at Progressive Field in Cleveland and televised on SNY. The Guardians are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Guardians. First pitch is set for 6:10 ET.

Mets vs Guardians

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Cleveland picked up a 3-1 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a two-run 1st inning and added an insurance run in the 4th. As for the Mets, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -124 on the money line.

Ben Lively got the win for Cleveland, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one run. Emmanuel Clase closed things out. Tylor Megill had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss after going five innings and giving up two earned runs.

At the plate, the Guardians were led by David Fry, who went 1/2 with two RBIs. Jose Ramirez also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Cleveland. As for the Mets, Tomas Nido hit the game’s only home run and went 1/2.

The Mets are 21-26 overall and trail the Phillies by 12.5 games in the NL East. Currently, they are 4th in the division and have gone just 5-8 in divisional games this year. New York lost the series opener vs. the Guardians, and they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Mets are 10-14 this year, and they have gone 11-12 on the road. So far, they are an even 12-12 as the favorite and 9-14 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 6-8-2, and they have dropped two straight series at home.

When betting the Mets on the run line this season, it’s been a better idea to take them on the road than at home. New York is 13-10 vs. the run line away from Citi Field, compared to just 8-16 at home. The Mets have an average run differential of -0.3 runs per game this season, with a scoring margin of -0.2 runs per game on the road and -0.4 runs per game at home. They’ve been a better bet on the run line as the underdog (12-11) than as the favorite (9-15).

Despite the Mets’ recent games trending towards the over, their games have had an average of 8.8 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 24-23, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit in all four games. However, only 2.1% of their games have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs this season.

Adrian Houser Gets The Start For The Mets

Right-hander Adrian Houser gets the start for the Mets today as he faces off against the Guardians on the road. Houser has made six starts this year and has yet to pick up a win, coming in with a record of 0-3 and ERA of 7.44. Opponents are batting .272 off Houser this season, and his WHIP is currently 1.84. In his most recent outing, Houser gave up one earned run in two innings of work out of the bullpen. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Houser has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three appearances.

Mets Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. However, they have been a much better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 12th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in terms of avoiding strikeouts. New York’s team home run total of 45 is 13th in the MLB.

Brandon Nimmo is batting just .217 for the season, but he does have seven home runs and is 12th in the league with 29 RBIs. Nimmo has gone deep in two of his last four games but is just 3/16 in that stretch. Pete Alonso has also homered in two of his last four games and has gone 8/28 over his last six games. Alonso is batting .235 for the season with a team-high 10 homers.

Cleveland is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 31-17, which has them leading the AL Central by 1.5 games over the Royals. The Guardians have won four straight games, and they are 10-5 against other teams in the AL Central so far. Their four-game winning streak has come after taking the final game of their series vs. the Mariners.

At home, the Guardians are 16-6 this year while going 15-11 on the road. One thing to note about Cleveland is that they have been really good in day games, going 14-3 this year. As the favorite, the Guardians are 20-9 and 11-8 when they are the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Guardians are 11-4 and have won two straight series.

When the Cleveland Guardians are at home, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 13-9. Their average run margin at home is +1.0, and they have covered the run line in three straight home games. Overall, they are 29-19 against the run line this season.

The Cleveland Guardians have played 46 games this season with over/under lines set lower than today’s 9.5 total, which is 95.8% of their games. Their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 23-23. The under has hit in two straight games, and their last game finished with just four runs scored.

Carlos Carrasco Gets The Start For The Guardians

Carlos Carrasco will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rangers, as he gets the start for the Guardians today. In that May 15th start, he took the loss, going 5 innings and giving up 2 earned runs on 5 hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Carrasco has made 9 starts, has a record of 2-4, and an ERA of 5.16. Opposing batters are hitting .261 off Carrasco this season, and his WHIP is currently 1.46. So far, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 6.75 strikeouts per nine innings. Carrasco has given up a total of 8 homers this year.

Guardians Offense Breakdown

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Over his last six games, Andrés Giménez has gone 10/24 (.417) with four runs scored and one home run. Overall, he is batting .271 for the season and has three homers. Josh Naylor and José Ramírez are the Guardians’ top power threats, with Naylor’s 12 homers ranking 5th in the league, and Ramírez’s 11 home runs coming in at 6th in the MLB. Ramírez also has a team-high 41 RBIs.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They are also among the league leaders in fewest strikeouts per game. Overall, they are batting .237 and have the league’s 9th ranked home run total. Cleveland’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are averaging 4.9 runs per game at home and 4.8 on the road.

Mets vs Guardians Prediction

We are predicting a 5-4 win for the Guardians, and with them at -122 on the money line, they are our recommended pick for this matchup. Offensively, we have the Guardians finishing with nine hits, which is good for ninth in the league today.

Looking at the Mets, they are projected to finish with just seven strikeouts, which is one of the higher totals in the league today. If you’re looking for a final score prediction, we have the Mets finishing with four runs, and they are projected to finish with eight hits.

As for the starting pitchers, Carlos Carrasco is projected to finish with five strikeouts, and he has a good chance of picking up the win. As for Adrian Houser, he is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, which is the second-worst among today’s starters.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.