Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction 5/28/2024

The Miami Marlins (19-36) travel to face off against the San Diego Padres (29-28) on Tuesday, May 28th. This game will be played at PETCO Park in San Diego and televised on BSFL. The Padres are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Marlins are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Padres. First pitch is set for 9:40 ET.

Marlins vs Padres

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San Diego picked up a 2-1 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a late rally, scoring one run in the 7th and another in the 8th to pick up the win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -203 on the money line.

Miami wasted a good outing from Trevor Rogers, as he gave up just one run in 5 1/3 innings of work for the Marlins. A.J. Puk took the loss. Adrian Morejon got the win out of the bullpen for the Padres as Michael King went five innings, giving up one earned run.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit the game’s only home run while going 2/4 with two runs scored. Donovan Solano hit a home run for the Padres, going 1/2.

Miami is 19-36 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, and they trail the Phillies by 19 games in the division. So far, they have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 4-12. The Marlins are looking to bounce back in today’s game, as they are on the road and lost the first game of this series vs. the Padres.

At home, the Marlins are just 10-19 this year, and they are 9-17 on the road. Miami has really struggled as the favorite this year, going only 3-11, but they are 16-25 as the underdog. The Marlins’ overall series record is 5-11-1, but they have won four straight series.

Despite their overall run differential of -1.4 runs per game, the Marlins have been a profitable team to bet on the run line this season, going 23-32 overall. They are 14-12 against the run line on the road, and they have covered the run line in seven straight road games. Miami has been an underdog in 41 of their 45 games this season, and they are 22-19 against the run line in those games.

The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the San Diego Padres. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Marlins have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season and their over/under record is 30-25. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 8-3. So far this season, 74.5% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, while only 5.5% have had lower lines. The under has hit in their last five games.

Jesús Luzardo Gets The Start For The Marlins

Jesús Luzardo has been pitching well for the Marlins, as he has won each of his last two starts. Most recently, he faced the Brewers and didn’t give up a run in 8 innings of work. Looking at his overall numbers, Luzardo has made 8 starts, turned in 3 quality starts, and has an ERA of 4.14. Opponents are batting .208 this season off the left-hander. Luzardo’s record for the season is 2-3, and his ERA at home is 3.47 compared to 8.25 on the road.

Marlins Offense Breakdown

As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.1 runs per contest. Miami’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team OPS. One positive for the Marlins is that they have the 7th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak and is the team’s leader in RBIs and is 2nd in home runs. Chisholm Jr. has two homers and three RBIs in his last five games while going 7/19. Over the same stretch, Jake Burger has gone 6/19 with a home run and three RBIs. For the season, Bryan De La Cruz is batting .258 with a team-high nine homers.

With a record of 29-28, the Padres are 3rd in the NL West, five games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres have won two straight games, and they are 6-4 over their last 10. San Diego took the series opener vs. the Marlins and have an overall division record of 12-13 this year.

At home, the Padres are 12-18 this season, but they have been good on the road at 17-10. As the favorite, the Padres are 17-16 this year and 12-12 as the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 10-7-2 this year, and they have won four straight series on the road. At home, they have dropped two straight series.

The Padres have been a solid run line bet overall this season, with a 30-27 record. However, they have been much better on the road, going 21-6 against the run line. As the favorite, they are just 14-19 against the run line, while they are 16-8 as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, while it is -3.4 in losing games.

The Padres have played 56 games this season, and 35 of them have had over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 29-27. In games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the record is 9-10. The under has hit in their last three games.

Matt Waldron Gets The Start For The Padres

Right-hander Matt Waldron gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Marlins at home. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 2-5 with an ERA of 4.86. Waldron’s WHIP for the season is 1.44, and opponents are batting .257 off him this year. In his last outing, Waldron finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Waldron’s ERA at home is 7.0 compared to 4.91 on the road.

Padres Offense Breakdown

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Over his last eight games, Luis Arraez has been on fire for the Padres, going 16/35 (.457) with four RBIs. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Overall, he is batting .333 with an OBP of .372. Jake Cronenworth has been a solid run producer for the Padres, as his 35 RBIs are 10th best in the league. He also has eight homers, which is 2nd on the team and 10th in the MLB.

As a team, the Padres are 3rd in batting average and 14th in runs scored (4.4 runs per game). They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. San Diego comes into the game with a team batting average of .255 and an OPS of .711.

Marlins vs Padres Prediction

Our prediction for this Padres vs. Marlins matchup is that the Padres will pick up a 5-4 win at home. Given that the Padres are at -131 on the money line, this is the best way to play this one.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Jesús Luzardo finishing with six strikeouts, and Matt Waldron finishing with six as well. However, we have Waldron going just five innings, which is why we don’t see him getting the win.

Offensively, our projections have the Padres finishing with nine hits compared to the Marlins with nine. However, the Padres are projected to finish with fewer runs, with the Marlins finishing with four.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.