The New York Mets (20-24) travel to face off against the Miami Marlins (14-32) on Saturday, May 18th. This game will be played at loanDepot Park in Miami and televised on WPIX. The Marlins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Marlins. First pitch is set for 4:10 ET.
Mets vs Marlins
Miami cruised to an easy 8-0 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their eight runs. As for the Mets, they had their best chance to score in the 6th, but could only muster two runs.
Jesús Luzardo started for the Marlins and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued five walks. On the other side, Christian Scott got the start for the Mets and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work.
Miami’s offense was led by a huge game from Nick Fortes, who went 3/3 with a home run. He scored three times and drove in three runs. Josh Bell and Jake Burger each had two hits and an RBI.
With a record of 20-24, the Mets are 4th in the NL East, 11 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 4-7 in divisional matchups. The Mets are on the road today, and they are an even 10-10 on the road this year.
As the favorite, the Mets have gone 11-11 this season and 9-13 as the underdog. New York has dropped two straight games as the favorite, and they are 6-7-2 in series this year. The Mets have gone 10-14 at home compared to 10-10 on the road.
The Mets have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 12-8 against the run line. They have been outscored by an average of 0.3 runs per game on the road this season, but their run line record is still positive. They have been an underdog in 22 games this season and have gone 12-10 against the run line in those games.
Despite a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game, the Mets’ over/under record for the season is just .500 at 22-22. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 6-7, and they have gone over in three straight games, including an 8-7 win over the Marlins last night.
Luis Severino Gets The Start For The Mets
Luis Severino is looking to get back on track for the Mets today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 3.00. Opponents are batting .198 off Severino this year, and he has a WHIP of 1.20. One issue for Severino has been walks, as he is averaging 4 per nine innings compared to 8.2 strikeouts. The right-hander has made three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up one earned run in five innings of work. He finished with a no-decision in that outing.
Mets Offense Breakdown
Brandon Nimmo has been struggling at the plate of late, hitting just .185 over his last eight games, but he does have three homers during that stretch. For the season, he is batting just .215. Pete Alonso has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/37 in his last 10 games, including two homers. His 23 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team, and he is 4th in the league with 10 homers.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the MLB. They have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are 11th in home runs but have a collective batting average of just .231.
Miami is 14-32 overall and trail the Phillies by 18 games in the NL East. So far, they are just 3-11 in divisional games. The Marlins have won three straight games, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 contests.
At home, the Marlins are 7-17 this year and 7-15 on the road. So far, they have been the underdog in 32 of their games, and they are 4-6 as the home underdog. Miami has struggled in night games this year, going 5-18.
Despite a run line record of 16-30, the Marlins have been a solid bet at home, going 6-18 against the run line at Marlins Park. Miami is 10-12 against the run line on the road, and they have covered the run line in five straight games as the underdog. The Marlins have covered the run line in just one of 14 games as the favorite.
With a combined run average of 9.2, the Miami Marlins have had high-scoring games this season. Their over/under record is 27-19, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over the total 7 times in 9 games. Overall, 76.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Braxton Garrett Gets The Start For The Marlins
Braxton Garrett will be making his second start of the season for the Marlins, and he will be at home against the Mets. In his first start of the year, Garrett went 5 1/3 innings, giving up 5 runs on 5 hits. He did strike out 8 batters, but he also gave up a pair of home runs.
Marlins Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been a bit better at home, putting up 4.1 runs per game. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team slugging percentage. As a team, they are batting just .228.
Bryan De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Marlins offense, as he is batting .257 for the season with a team-high nine home runs and 25 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has also been a solid run producer, batting .250 with 21 RBIs. Chisholm Jr. has gone 8/25 in his last six games, while Otto Lopez has two homers and five RBIs in this stretch.
Mets vs Marlins Prediction
Our prediction for today’s Mets vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Marlins to win straight up, and with the money line sitting at +113, we have them winning this one 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Luis Severino finishing with seven strikeouts, and Braxton Garrett with six. However, Garrett has a better chance of picking up the win, and we have him going six innings, compared to Severino, who we have going five.
Offensively, our projections have the Mets finishing with eight hits, compared to the Marlins with eight. However, the Mets are projected to finish with more home runs, but we have them as a team finishing with the 18th most strikeouts.
For the Marlins, they are projected to finish with the 15th most strikeouts and are projected to finish with the 19th most home runs.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:May 18, 2024 Marlins, Mets