The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-25) travel to face off against the Chicago Cubs (25-19) on Thursday, May 16th. This game will be played at Wrigley Field in Chicago and televised on MARQ. The Cubs are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Pirates are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Brewers. First pitch is set for 7:40 ET.
Pirates vs Cubs
The Pirates will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 10-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 3rd inning before the Brewers scored five runs in the inning. Pittsburgh was the +127 underdog on the road going into this game.
Martin Perez had a rough outing, giving up nine earned runs on 11 hits and issuing three walks. The Pirates also wasted a big game from Andrew McCutchen, who went 3/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
The Pirates are on the road today, looking to pick up a win vs. the Cubs and close the 7.5-game gap they have on the Brewers for the NL Central lead. Currently, they are 19-25 overall and went 4-6 in their first 10 games of the year.
Pittsburgh has dropped two straight games, and this season, they are 6-12 as the favorite. As for their record as the underdog, the Pirates are an even 13-13. On the road, the Pirates have dropped two straight as they are 10-13 on the road this year.
The Pirates have a run line record of 23-21 this season, including a 13-10 mark on the road. They have been an underdog in 26 of their games, going 18-8 against the run line in those contests. Pittsburgh’s average run margin in wins is +2.6, while it drops to -3.3 in losses.
The Pirates have played in 36 games this season, and 30 of them have had higher over/under lines than today’s 7.5. The over/under record for the Pirates this season is 20-23, and the combined run average in their games is 8.2 runs per game. Their games have averaged 8 runs per game, and their last game against the Cubs had 9 runs. Their last three games have gone over the over/under line.
Jared Jones Gets The Start For The Pirates
Jared Jones gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Cubs on the road. So far this season, he has made eight starts and has a record of 2-4. Jones’ ERA for the season is 2.68, along with a WHIP of 0.87. In his 47 innings of work, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 10.72 strikeouts per nine innings. Jones most recently pitched on May 10th, where he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that outing, he had not given up a homer in three straight starts.
Pirates Offense Breakdown
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates offense is averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 26th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .223, and their on-base percentage of .302 is also near the bottom of the league. One positive is that they are 5th in the league in walks.
Over his last five games, Bryan Reynolds has gone 7/22 with one home run. For the season, he is batting .250 with five homers. Connor Joe comes into the game with a team-high 22 RBIs and is batting .286. Joe has gone deep three times in his last four games.
Heading into their last game vs. the Braves, the Cubs closed out the series with a 7-1 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +160. It was a big three-run 1st inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Braves could only score one run, which came in the 7th.
Javier Assad put together a good start for the Cubs, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out seven Braves batters. Chicago’s offense was carried by Seiya Suzuki, who went 2/5 with a homer and three RBIs.
Chicago is 25-19 overall and 2nd in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 1.5 games. The Cubs are 4-2 in the division and are 13-6 at home compared to 12-13 on the road. The Cubs kick off their series vs. the Pirates, with Pittsburgh 7.5 games out of 1st place in the NL Central.
As the home favorite, the Cubs have gone 7-4 this year and are 11-6 overall as the favorite. Chicago’s series record is 7-5-2 this year, and they closed out their series vs. the Braves with a loss. In the series, they are 5-5.
When the Cubs win, they tend to do so by more than three runs per game, but they have been outscored by an average of 3.6 runs in their losses. As a result, they are 25-19 against the run line this season. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 19-8, compared to 6-11 as the favorite. Their average run margin for the season is +0.3 runs per game.
The Cubs have played 25 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and the over has gone 12-13 in those games. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 18-24 overall. Their last three games have all gone under the total, and they are 5-7 this season in games with over/under lines set at 7.5 runs.
Justin Steele Gets The Start For The Cubs
Justin Steele is getting the start for the Cubs today, and he has made three starts so far this season. In his first start, he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up 1 run on 3 hits. He then went 4 innings in his last start, giving up 6 runs on 6 hits and striking out 3.
Cubs Offense Breakdown
Chicago’s offense has been solid at home this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. Overall, they are 11th in the league at 4.6 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .237, which is 15th in the league, and have the 8th most home runs in the league.
Christopher Morel has struggled with his batting average this season, hitting just .212, but his 9 homers are 5th in the league, and his 28 RBIs are good for 11th in the league. Morel has also gone deep twice in his last 10 games. Cody Bellinger has also gone deep twice in his last eight games while hitting .353 over that stretch. Bellinger is batting .263 for the season.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
Our prediction for today’s Pirates vs. Cubs matchup is to take the Cubs on the money line at -133. We have the Cubs winning this one by a final score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also consider taking the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Justin Steele finishing with six strikeouts compared to Jared Jones with five. Steele is also projected to finish with fewer earned runs than Jones, and we have him finishing with a better chance of picking up a win.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:May 16, 2024 Cubs, Pirates