Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 5/17/2024

The Pittsburgh Pirates (20-25) travel to face off against the Chicago Cubs (25-20) on Friday, May 17th. This game will be played at Wrigley Field in Chicago and televised on MLBN. The Pirates are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Cubs are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Pirates. First pitch is set for 2:20 ET.

Pirates vs Cubs

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Pittsburgh picked up a 5-4 road win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a two-run lead going into the 9th inning, and the Cubs could only muster one run in their half of the 9th. Heading into the game, the Pirates were at +105 on the money line.

Jared Jones started for the Pirates and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued five walks. As for the Cubs, Justin Steele got the start and took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.

Pittsburgh’s offense was led by a big game from Edward Olivares, who homered and went 2/4 at the plate. He scored twice and drove in two runs. Nick Gonzales also had a two-hit game for the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is 20-25 overall this season, and they are seven games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they are 5-6 in divisional matchups. The Pirates are on a three-game series losing streak, and their overall series record is 4-7-3 this year.

At home, the Pirates are 9-12 this season and 11-13 on the road. As the favorite, the Pirates are just 6-12 this season, and they are 1-4 as the road favorite. Pittsburgh has won four of their last six games as the underdog. This season, the Pirates are 14-13 as the underdog.

When the Pirates are favored, they are 5-13 against the run line, but when they are the underdog, they are 19-8. The Pirates are 24-21 against the run line overall, with an average run margin of -0.7 runs per game. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.5 runs per game, while in losing games, it is -3.3 runs per game.

Despite the Pirates’ over/under record of 1-7 when the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over has hit in their last two games, and the over/under line for their game against the Cubs is set at 7.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8.2 runs per game this season, and the over/under record for the season is 21-23. So far this season, 68.9% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.

Paul Skenes Gets The Start For The Pirates

Paul Skenes will be making his second start of the season for the Pirates, and he will be on the road to take on the Cubs. In his first start of the season, Skenes went 4 innings and gave up 3 earned runs, but he did strike out 7 batters.

Pirates Offense Breakdown

Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. This is due in part to their team batting average of .223, which is also 22nd in the MLB. One positive for the Pirates is that they are 5th in the league in walks. At home, they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game.

Over his last five games, Andrew McCutchen is hitting .400 with two homers and six runs scored. For the season, he is batting .285 with six home runs. Bryan Reynolds and Connor Joe are also near the top of the Pirates’ home run leaderboard, with Reynolds batting .250 and Joe hitting .285. Reynolds has gone deep five times this season, while Joe has six homers.

Chicago is 25-20 overall and 2nd in the NL Central, two games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Cubs are 4-3 in divisional games this year and have dropped the first game of their series with the Pirates. So far, they are 7-5-2 in series this year.

At home, the Cubs have gone 13-7 this year compared to 12-13 on the road. As the underdog, the Cubs are just above .500 at 14-13 and 11-7 as the favorite. Chicago has dropped two straight at home, and their overall record is 4-6 across their last ten games.

Chicago has a run line record of 25-20 on the season, including a 10-10 mark at home. The Cubs have a run line record of 15-10 on the road, where they have a run differential of -0.7 runs per game. Chicago has been a run line underdog in 27 games, going 19-8 in those contests. The Cubs’ average run differential in winning games is +3.3 runs per game.

With an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the Cubs have seen the over hit in 5 of their 12 games with that line this season. Overall, the Cubs have gone over the total in 19 of their 43 games this season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Today’s game against the Pirates has an over/under line of 7.5 runs.

Kyle Hendricks Gets The Start For The Cubs

Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs today and is looking to pick up his first win of the season. Through six starts, he is 0-3 with a 1.04 ERA. Hendricks has a WHIP of 1.92 and has allowed a total of nine home runs. In his most recent outing, he finished with a no-decision, going five innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Opponents are batting .333 off Hendricks this season. Per nine innings, he has 7.27 strikeouts and 3.81 walks.

Cubs Offense Breakdown

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Heading into today’s game, Christopher Morel leads the Cubs in RBIs (29) and home runs (9), but he is batting just .208 for the season. Morel has also struggled of late, hitting just .172 over his last eight games. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch are tied for 2nd on the team with seven homers apiece, with Bellinger batting .262 and Busch at .254. Bellinger comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Cubs are 11th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a better offense at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .236, which is 15th in the league, and are 8th in home runs. So far, they have been a good team at drawing walks and have the 8th best on-base percentage in the league.

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction

For today’s Pirates vs. Cubs matchup, we like the Cubs to pick up the win at home. At -105, there is some good value in taking the Cubs on the money line, as we have them winning by a score of 5-4.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Kyle Hendricks finishing with four strikeouts, which is the lowest among today’s starters. As for Paul Skenes, we have him finishing with five strikeouts, which is right in the middle among all starters.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.