San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Prediction

MLB San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 5/21/2024

The San Diego Padres (25-25) travel to face off against the Cincinnati Reds (19-28) on Tuesday, May 21st. This game will be played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and televised on None. Both the Padres and Reds are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 6:40 ET.

Padres vs Reds

san diego padres nba

Led by a big game by Luis Arraez at the plate, the Padres are coming off a 3-0 loss to the Braves. Arraez went 2/4 with a double, but the Padres couldn’t score a run. San Diego was the +202 underdog going into this road game.

Randy Vasquez started for the Padres, going six innings and giving up three earned runs on 10 hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and took the loss.

San Diego is at .500 with an overall record of 25-25 as they take on the Reds on the road today. The Padres will be starting the day eight games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. So far, they are 12-13 in divisional games.

At home, the Padres are just 10-16 this year, but they have been good on the road at 15-9. San Diego has won three straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 9-6-2 this year. The Padres have been good as the road favorite, going 5-3, and they have won three straight as the favorite overall. Their losing streak as the favorite is three games.

San Diego is 19-5 against the run line on the road this season, but they are just 8-18 against the run line at home. The Padres have an average run margin of 1.6 runs per game on the road, compared to -1.0 at home. They are 15-7 against the run line as an underdog this season.

The Padres have played 48 games this season, and their over/under record is 26-23. Their average over/under line has been 8 runs per game, and their combined run average is 8.9 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs, their record is 1-1. So far, only 6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher.

Joe Musgrove Gets The Start For The Padres

Right-hander Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Reds on the road. This year, he has made eight starts and has a record of 3-3 with a 6.37 ERA. Musgrove’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.51. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Musgrove has allowed a total of 10 home runs this year. So far, he has made four quality starts.

Padres Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Padres offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .257, which is 4th in the MLB, and are 9th in home runs. San Diego’s team on-base percentage is 7th in the league, and they are also among the league leaders in walks and have done a good job of limiting strikeouts.

Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been two of the Padres top hitters this season, with Profar batting .339 and Cronenworth at .270. Cronenworth and Profar are also tied for the team lead in home runs. Profar has gone 9/20 in his last five games, and Luis Arraez has also been hot of late, going 8/19 in his last four games. Arraez is currently on a five-game hitting streak.

The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Dodgers with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Dodgers scored a run in the bottom of the 7th to tie things up. Cincinnati was the +147 underdog going into this road game.

Hunter Greene put together a good start for the Reds, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two runs on four hits. He also issued only two walks and struck out eight Dodgers batters. However, the Reds couldn’t close things out, and Alexis Diaz took the loss out of the bullpen. The Reds also wasted a big game from Stuart Fairchild, who went 2/4 with a run scored.

Cincinnati will open up their series vs. the Padres having lost three straight games, and they are 8.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Overall, the Reds are 19-28 and are 5th in the NL Central. This year, they have gone just 1-2 in divisional games.

At home, the Reds are 9-13 this year and 10-15 on the road. As the underdog, Cincinnati has gone 9-18 this year and an even 10-10 as the favorite. So far, they have gone 2-4 as the home underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 4-10-1, and they have dropped seven straight series.

The Reds have been a better bet on the run line on the road than at home, going 16-9 vs. 8-14. They are 9-11 vs. the run line as the favorite and 15-12 as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is +4.2, while it’s -3.1 in losses.

When the Reds take the field at home, the over/under line is usually set lower than 9.5. In fact, only 2.1% of their games have had a line set at 9.5 or higher. Their over/under record for the season is 22-23, and their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game. Their last two games have gone under the total, and their over/under record for the season is 22-23.

Andrew Abbott Gets The Start For The Reds

Cincinnati is sending left-hander Andrew Abbott to the mound today vs. the Padres. So far this season, he has made nine starts and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 3.06. Looking at his overall numbers, Abbott has a WHIP of 1.14 and has issued just 2.52 walks per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in seven innings of work. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Abbott has allowed at least one homer in three of his last four outings.

Reds Offense Breakdown

cincinnati reds

Heading into today’s game, the Reds are batting just .217 as a team, which is the worst mark in the league. However, they do have a couple of guys who have been swinging the bat well of late. Stuart Fairchild comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak and is 6/14 over his last eight games. Tyler Stephenson has also been hot, going 12/29 in his last 10 games.

Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Reds this season, as he is batting .256 with a team-high nine home runs. His 22 RBIs are also the 2nd best mark on the team. Spencer Steer is batting just .224 for the season but is 10th in the league with 31 RBIs.

Padres vs Reds Prediction

Our predicted score for this one is a 5-4 win for the Reds, which means you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 9.5 runs. However, we like the Reds to pick up the win and would recommend taking them on the money line at +101.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and Andrew Abbott is projected to finish with five. Abbott is projected to go just four innings, and with the Reds bullpen, we could see them getting the win.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.