Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat - NBA Prediction

NBA Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Prediction 12/22/2023

The Atlanta Hawks (12-15) travel to face off against the Miami Heat (16-12) on Friday, December 22nd. This game will be played at Kaseya Center. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 8:00 ET.

Hawks vs Heat

The Hawks Are Coming Off A Win

The Hawks clinched a 134-127 win over the Rockets in their previous game. The Hawks faced the Rockets as +3 underdogs, achieving both a straight-up and ATS win in the game. The over/under line entering this matchup was 234 points, and both teams achieved a total score that exceeded that line.

In their quest for a win over the Heat, the Hawks are 12-15 overall this season. When playing on the road, the Hawks have gone 8-8 compared to 4-7 at home.

Atlanta has an overall ATS record of 7-20 for the season so far. The Hawks have experienced a three game ATS loss streak as favorites, and they are 5-10 vs. the spread when they are underdogs.

The Heat Are Coming Off A Win

The Heat notched a win against the Magic in their most recent game, concluding with a score of 115-106. The Heat faced the Magic as +5.5 underdogs, achieving both a straight-up and ATS win in the game. Before the game, the over/under line was 219 points, and both teams ended up surpassing that mark.

In their last five games, the Heat are 3-2 and have an overall record of 16-12. When facing other Eastern Conference teams, the Heat are 13-10 compared to 3-2 in non-conference games.

Miami has an overall ATS record of 12-15 as they come into today’s game. During this season, Miami has a 6-9 record against the spread as favorites and 6-6 as underdogs.

Hawks Offense Breakdown

The Atlanta offense will take the floor in today’s game with the league’s 3rd ranked offense at 123.1 points per game. The Hawks come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 14.4 made 3’s per game. One area that the Atlanta offense will continue to rely on is their ability to get to the free-throw line. So far, they are the 6th ranked unit in made free-throw per game.

Heat Offense Breakdown

Through 28 games games, Miami is averaging 112.9 points per game (20th). When looking at the team’s pace of play, the Heat are currently below the league average in possessions per game, averaging just 96.5 per contest. Their slower style of play has created fewer offensive opportunities, leading to them being ranked 28th in fields goals made per contest.

Hawks Team Defense

Coming into the game, the Hawks’ defense is giving up an average of 122.9 points per game. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA league average in 74.1% of their games.

In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Hawks defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 58.1% while allowing 38.6% from downtown.

Heat Team Defense

In the current season, the Heat defense has excelled, sitting 9 in the NBA by allowing 111.8 points per game.

In the terms of takeaways, Heat are causing 12.4 turnovers per game, ranking 7th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 30th in rejections, averaging 3.1 blocked shots each game.

Key Players For The Hawks And Heat

For today’s matchup, we project Trae Young to lead the scoring for the Hawks, putting up 20 points and shooting at a rate of 7/15. During this season, he is delivering an average of 28.2 points per game, along with 3 rebounds.

As for Miami, Tyler Herro is projected to be the primary scorer for the Heat. Our forecast has him finishing the game with 15, and adding 3 rebounds. This season, he is shooting at a field goal percentage of 47.1%, and his scoring average is 23.6 points per game.

Hawks vs Heat Trends

  • Across their ten previous road games, Atlanta has an ATS mark of 3-7. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 122 points per game.
  • Although Miami has a straight up record of 7-3 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-3-1. The team averaged 111 points per game in these games.
  • Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Hawks have a straight up record of 2-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
  • Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Heat have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.


Hawks vs Heat Prediction


For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Heat to secure the win, with an expected final score of 114-111. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -2.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 236.5 and our model has the Hawks and Heat finishing with a combined 225 points. Our pick is to take the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.