Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction 4/27/2024

The Boston Celtics (64-18) travel to face off against the Miami Heat (46-36) on Saturday, April 27th. This game will be played at Kaseya Center in Miami and televised on TNT. The Heat are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Celtics are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Celtics. Tip-off is set for 6:00 ET.

Celtics vs Heat

boston celtics nba

The Heat picked up a 111-101 win over the Celtics in the most recent game of this series. Miami was a 14.5-point underdog heading into the game, and they easily covered the spread. The Heat had a big 3rd quarter, outscoring the Celtics 27-18. The game also surpassed the over/under line of 205.5 points by 6.5 points.

Both teams shot the ball around their season averages, as the Celtics shot 46.2% from the field and the Heat shot 49.3%. Miami hit 23 threes on 53.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Tyler Herro led the Heat with 24 points and six made threes, and Bam Adebayo added 21 points and 10 rebounds. Jaylen Brown led all scorers with 33 points.

Celtics Offense Breakdown

Boston’s offense is averaging 120.6 points per game this season, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Despite their high-scoring offense, the Celtics have scored below the league average in 29.3% of their games this season. They are also below average in terms of pace this season, averaging 97.2 possessions per contest.

For the season, the Celtics lead the NBA in both three-point attempts and makes, averaging 42.5 attempts and 16.5 makes per game. Overall, they have hit 38% of their looks from downtown. Jayson Tatum is averaging 23 points per game in his last three games, but he hit just 19% of his three-point attempts in that stretch. Payton Pritchard is averaging 18.6 points per game in his last five games, hitting 61.9% of his shots from the field in that stretch.

Heat Offense Breakdown

miami heat

Miami comes into the game as the 26th ranked scoring offense, at 110.1 points per game. Their production has been slightly better at home, with an average of 112.1 points per contest. The Heat are also near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging just 95.8 possessions per game.

Tyler Herro has averaged 20.2 points per game over the Heat’s last five games, while hitting 40.7% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 8.8 assists. Bam Adebayo has averaged 17 points per game in this stretch, while shooting 63.8% from the field and 7.6 rebounds. For the season, Adebayo is averaging 19.3 points and 10.4 rebounds.

Celtics Team Defense

So far this season, the Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 5th in points allowed per game at 109.1. On the road, they have been even better, giving up just 110.5 points per contest, which is 6th in the league. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Boston is 2nd in the NBA at 45.4%. They have also been one of the best teams at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.1% from beyond the arc.

One area where the Celtics have excelled defensively is at the free-throw line, where they are giving up just 17.2 made free throws per game, which is tops in the league. Despite being one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, Boston has been able to avoid fouling, ranking 29th in personal fouls per game.

Heat Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best teams in the league this season. They are currently ranked 3rd in the NBA, allowing just 108.1 points per game. In their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 102.8 points per game.

One area where the Heat have excelled has been in their ability to keep opponents off the free-throw line. On the season, Miami is 3rd in the league in fewest made free throws allowed per game at 19.2.

When it comes to three-point shooting, opponents have made more threes than their season average in 52.4% of games vs. Miami. On the season, the Heat are 19th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.4%.

Key Players For The Celtics And Heat

For today’s matchup, we project Jayson Tatum to lead the scoring for the Celtics, putting up 26 points and shooting at a rate of 9/19. This season, he is averaging 26.9 points per game along with 8.1 boards.

On the opposing side, we anticipate Tyler Herro to be the top scorer for the Heat. Our projection has him finishing the game with 19, and he is expected to secure 5 rebounds. For the season, he has a field goal percentage of 44.1% and is averaging 20.8 points per contest.

Celtics vs Heat Trends

  • Across their three previous road games, Boston has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-1 while averaging 104 points per game.
  • When looking at their past ten home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
  • Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
  • Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-1-1.

Celtics vs Heat Prediction

When looking to get a point-spread pick down in this Celtics vs. Heat game, our recommendation is to take the Heat at +9. Despite our model showing the Celtics winning 116-113, we like Heat as our point-spread pick.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 202.5, and our model projects the Celtics and Heat to reach a combined total of 229 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.