Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction 4/29/2024

The Boston Celtics (64-18) travel to face off against the Miami Heat (46-36) on Monday, April 29th. This game will be played at Kaseya Center in Miami and televised on TNT. The Celtics are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Heat are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Heat. Tip-off is set for 7:30 ET.

Celtics vs Heat

boston celtics nba

After a dominating 2nd quarter, the Celtics easily covered the spread in their 104-84 win over the Heat. Heading into the game, the Celtics were favored by 9.5 points and held the Heat to just 27 points in the 2nd quarter. The game also fell 17 points short of the over/under line of 205 points.

The Celtics held the Heat to just 41.6% shooting from the field and 32.1% from three-point range. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown each had 22 points for the Celtics, and Adebayo led the Heat with 20 points.

Celtics Offense Breakdown

Boston comes into the game as one of the top-scoring teams in the league, at 120.6 points per game. They have been even better than that in terms of three-point shooting, leading the league with 16.5 made threes per game. This season, they have averaged 42.5 three-point attempts per contest, which is also the best in the league.

Payton Pritchard has been playing well offensively of late, averaging 16.8 points per game in his last five games while shooting 63.6% from the field. Jayson Tatum is averaging 24.3 points and 9.7 rebounds in his last three games, while Jaylen Brown is averaging 24 points and 8 rebounds in his last three. Overall, Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game, and Brown is averaging 23 points per contest.

Heat Offense Breakdown

miami heat

Miami comes into today’s game as the 27th-ranked scoring offense, at 110.1 points per game. Even though they are near the bottom of the league in pace, the Heat have been slightly better in terms of scoring at home, at 111.5 points per contest. The team’s three-point shooting percentage of 37% is the 10th best mark in the league.

Jimmy Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game this year, to go along with 5 assists and 5.3 rebounds. Terry Rozier is averaging 19.8 points and 5.6 assists. Tyler Herro has averaged 19.8 points and 7.6 assists in his last five games, while Bam Adebayo is averaging 17.6 points on 56.1% shooting in his last five games.

Celtics Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season. They are currently ranked 5th in the league in points allowed per game at 108.8. On the road, they have been even better, giving up just 109.9 points per contest, which is 4th in the NBA.

One area where the Celtics have excelled this season is at the free-throw line. They are currently 1st in the NBA in made free-throws allowed per game at 17.2. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 12 made free-throws per contest, which is 2nd in the league over that span.

When it comes to three-point defense, Boston is currently 15th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%. Over their last five games, they have struggled a bit in that area, allowing opponents to shoot 39.5% from beyond the arc.

Heat Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat were one of the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 108.1 points per game. In terms of points allowed per game, they were 3rd in the NBA. At home, the Heat have been solid, giving up 109.6 points per game, which is 8th in the league.

One area where Miami has been able to limit opposing offenses is from three-point range. On the season, they have allowed opponents to shoot just 35.4% from deep, which is 18th in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better in this area, giving up just 35.3% from beyond the arc.

When it comes to steals and blocked shots, the Heat are middle of the pack, ranking 15th and 30th respectively. In terms of fouls, they have been one of the least penalized teams in the league, ranking 28th in personal fouls.

Key Players For The Celtics And Heat

For today’s matchup, we project Jayson Tatum to lead the scoring for the Celtics, putting up 26 points and shooting at a rate of 9/19. For the season, he has been averaging 26.9 points per game, in addition to 8.1 rebounds.

On the other side, Tyler Herro is our projected leading scorer for the Heat. We have him ending the game with a team-high 20 and grabbing 5 rebounds. Throughout the season, he has maintained a 44.1% field goal shooting rate and is averaging 20.8 points per game.

Celtics vs Heat Trends

  • In their last five games away from home, the Celtics have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team averaged 107 points per game in this stretch.
  • In their last three home games, Miami has averaged 103 points per game while allowing 106. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
  • Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
  • The Celtics have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Celtics vs Heat Prediction

When looking to get a point-spread pick down in this Celtics vs. Heat game, our recommendation is to take the Heat at +10.5. Despite our model showing the Celtics winning 116-111, we like Heat as our point-spread pick.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 203.5 and our model has the Celtics and Heat finishing with a combined 227 points. Our pick is to take the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.