Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Betting Prediction

NBA City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction 5/11/2024

The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) travel to face off against the Dallas Mavericks (50-32) on Saturday, May 11th. This game will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas and televised on ABC. The Mavericks are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Thunder are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Thunder. Tip-off is set for 3:30 ET.

Thunder vs Mavericks

oklahoma city thunder nba

The Mavericks pulled off a road win in the most recent game of this Mavericks vs. Thunder series, winning by a score of 119-110. Despite being 5-point underdogs, the Mavericks easily covered the spread, and the game also surpassed the over/under line of 217 points. Dallas led by 7 heading into the 4th quarter and held the Thunder to just 21 points in the final quarter.

Luka Doncic had a big game for the Mavericks, finishing with 29 points, 7 assists, and 10 rebounds. He also knocked down 5 threes on 62.5% shooting from beyond the arc. P.J. Washington also had 29 points for the Mavericks, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 33 points for the Thunder.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

Oklahoma City’s offense is averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They have been an efficient shooting team, hitting 49% of their field goal attempts, which is the 2nd best mark in the NBA. The Thunder are also the league leaders in three-point shooting, connecting on 38% of their attempts from downtown. In terms of pace, the Thunder are 10th in the league.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 28.6 points per game over his last five games, hitting 48.5% of his shots from the field. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is averaging 7.9 rebounds per game for the season and 15.2 points in his last five games. Jalen Williams has averaged 20.8 points per game in his last five games.

Mavericks Offense Breakdown

dallas mavericks

Overall, the Mavericks are the NBA’s 8th ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per game. Their average of 118 points per game at home is 9th in the league. Dallas is 3rd in three-point attempts and makes this season, knocking down 14.6 threes per game. Despite their high volume of three-point attempts, they are just 14th in three-point shooting percentage, at 36%.

Luka Doncic is averaging 28 points per game over his last five games, to go along with 9.8 assists and 8 rebounds. However, he has hit just 23.3% of his threes in that stretch. Kyrie Irving is averaging 22.6 points per game in his last five games on a shooting percentage of 50%. For the season, he is averaging 25.6 points and 5.2 assists.

Thunder Team Defense

On the season, the Thunder are 10th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 111.5. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, they are 2nd in the league at 45.3%. They have been especially tough inside the arc, ranking 2nd in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 51.7%.

One area where opponents have had success against the Thunder is from beyond the arc. On the year, they are 21st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.1%. However, they have done a good job of not fouling, ranking 15th in personal fouls.

Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been even better on the defensive end. They have allowed just 96 points per contest during that stretch, which is 3rd in the NBA. During that span, opponents have shot just 41.4% from the field and 32.3% from three-point range.

Mavericks Team Defense

Heading into tonight’s game against the Thunder, the Mavericks are giving up 114.6 points per game, which is 18th in the league. Over their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 107.4 points per game, which is 10th in the NBA during that stretch.

One area where Dallas has struggled this season is defending the three-point line. On the year, opponents are shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc against the Mavericks. Over their last five games, that number has jumped to 38.5%.

Overall, opposing teams have scored more than their season average in 61.0% of games against Dallas. However, they have done a good job of not sending opponents to the free-throw line, as they are 15th in the league in made free-throws allowed per game at 21.6.

Key Players For The Thunder And Mavericks

For today’s matchup, we project Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the scoring for the Thunder, putting up 30 points and shooting at a rate of 10/20. Throughout this season, his average stands at 30.1 points per game, along with 5.5 rebounds.

As for Dallas, Luka Doncic is projected to be the primary scorer for the Mavericks. Our forecast has him finishing the game with 33, and adding 9 rebounds. This season, he is shooting at a field goal percentage of 48.7%, and his scoring average is 33.9 points per game.

Thunder vs Mavericks Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 107 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
  • Across their last three home contests, Dallas has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 112 points per game.
  • Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Thunder have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
  • Through their last three games as the favorite, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +2.5, the Thunder is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 218.5 and our model has the Thunder and Mavericks finishing with a combined 229 points. Our pick is to take the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.