Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets - NBA Prediction

NBA Dallas vs Houston Rockets Prediction 12/22/2023

The Dallas Mavericks (16-11) travel to face off against the Houston Rockets (13-12) on Friday, December 22nd. This game will be played at Toyota Center. Both the Mavericks and Rockets will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Tip off is scheduled for 8:00 ET.

Mavericks vs Rockets

The Mavericks Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

In their latest game against the Clippers, Luka Doncic was the top scorer for the Mavericks’ offense, scoring 28 points and shooting 9/25 from the field. Tim Hardaway Jr. contributed 21 points, but Dallas lost the game 120-111.

Coming into today’s matchup against the Rockets, the Mavericks are 16-11 overall and are looking to snap their two-game losing streak. On the road, the Mavericks are 9-5 this season compared to a 7-6 record at home.

Dallas has an overall ATS record of 14-13 as they come into today’s game. Dallas has failed to cover the spread in two straight home games and are 5-8 ATS at home compared to 9-5 on the road.

The Rockets Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Rockets will look to bounce back from a defeat in their last game, losing to the Hawks with a final score of 134-127. In addition, to losing the game straight-up, the Rockets lost vs. the spread as -3 point favorites. The over/under line heading into this matchup was 234 points in which the two teams surpassed.

Coming into today’s game, the Rockets have a 13-12 record and are looking to stay above .500. In Western Conference play, the Rockets are 12-8 while going 1-4 in non-conference games.

Houston has an ATS record of 16-8 for this season, which includes their current three game losing streak against the spread. Houston has gone 6-1 against the spread this season when they are the favorites, and they are 10-7 when playing as underdogs.

Mavericks Offense Breakdown

Heading into play, the Mavericks’ offense is rated 6th in the league in scoring, averaging 119 points per contest. When looking at the Mavericks pace of play, they tend to play an up-tempo style of basketball. So far, the team is in the upper half of the NBA in possessions per game, averaging 99.4. Not only is the team ranked near the top of the league in possessions, but this fast-paced style has translated to an increased number of made shots, as they are 9th in the league in made field goals per game.

Rockets Offense Breakdown

Through 25 games games, Houston is averaging 111.4 points per game (24th). So far, the Rockets are averaging 97.6 possessions per game, which places them below the NBA average. Not only does the team’s offense play at a slower pace, but they their overall lack of efficiency has them ranked 27th in made field goals per game.

Mavericks Team Defense

The Mavericks’ defense is presently ranked 21 in the league, allowing an average of 117.7 points per contest.

In the terms of takeaways, Mavericks are causing 11.4 turnovers per game, ranking 1st in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 26th in rejections, averaging 4.3 blocked shots each game.

Rockets Team Defense

So far, the Rockets defense is giving up 108.4 points per contest, which has them sitting 2 in the NBA. One thing to note, is they have given up more points than their season average in five straight matchups.

In their previous matchup vs. the Hawks, the Rockets’ defense struggled, giving up a field goal percentage of 51% leading to 134 points.

Key Players For The Mavericks And Rockets

In today’s game, our projections have Tim Hardaway Jr. leading the Mavericks with 21 points on 8/18 shooting from the field. For the season, he has been averaging 17.4 points per game, in addition to 3.5 rebounds.

On the flip side, our predictions place Alperen Sengün as the leading scorer for the Rockets. We expect him to conclude the game with a team-high 14 while also collecting 6 rebounds. Throughout the season, he has maintained a 52.9% field goal shooting rate and is averaging 19.7 points per game.

Mavericks vs Rockets Trends

  • In their last ten games away from home, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 117 points per game in this stretch.
  • Across their five previous home games, Houston has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 112 points per game.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 2-8. But, their mark vs the spread was just 3-7.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Rockets have a straight up record of 9-1. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-2-1.


Mavericks vs Rockets Prediction


Coming in as the underdogs at +8.5, we have the Mavericks as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 226.5 and our model has the Mavericks and Rockets finishing with a combined 219 points. Our pick is to take the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.