Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction 3/17/2024

The Denver Nuggets (47-20) travel to face off against the Dallas Mavericks (38-29) on Sunday, March 17th. This game will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas and televised on ABC. The Nuggets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mavericks are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Spurs. Tip-off is set for 3:30 ET.

Nuggets vs Mavericks

denver nuggets nba

The Nuggets Are Coming Off A Win

The Nuggets took down the Spurs in their most recent game with a final score of 117-106. the Nuggets not only secured a victory straight-up but also did so while covering the spread as -10.5-point favorites. Regarding the over/under, the combined score of 223 points ended up below the over/under line of 224.5.

In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are 2nd and in the Northwest Division, they are 2nd as well. Overall, the Nuggets are 47-20 and they are coming into today’s game on a five game winning streak.

Against the spread, the Nuggets have covered in two straight games and have an overall ATS record of 31-34. Denver has covered the spread in five straight road games and are 15-18 ATS on the road compared to 16-16 at home.

The Mavericks Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Mavericks’ most recent game versus the Thunder saw Kyrie Irving lead the Mavericks with 36 points while shooting 12/18 from the field. Tim Hardaway Jr. contributed 23 points, but Dallas lost the game 126-119.

In their previous five games, the Mavericks are 4-1 and have an overall record of 38-29. At home, the Mavericks have gone 20-15 compared to their 18-14 record on the road.

Dallas has an overall ATS record of 37-30 for the season so far. In their last three road games, Dallas has successfully covered the spread, and they hold an ATS record of 21-11 on the road in contrast to 16-19 at home.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

The Nuggets come into today’s game as the 15th ranked scoring offense at 114.8 points per game.

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are 15th in the league with 114.8 points per game. However, they have been better at home, averaging 118.9 points compared to 110.8 on the road. So far, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 49.3% of their games.

Denver has been one of the best teams in the league at getting to the rim, ranking 1st in two-point attempts and 2nd in two-point makes. Overall, they have made 49% of their shots, which is 4th in the NBA. However, they are just 28th in three-point attempts and makes.

When it comes to pace, the Nuggets are 28th in the league at 96.2 possessions per game. They are also 29th in free throw attempts and makes, averaging just 15.1 made free throws per game.

Mavericks Offense Breakdown

dallas mavericks

The Mavericks arrive for today’s game as one of the NBA’s top offensive teams, scoring an average of 119 points per game (6th).

Heading into this game, the Mavericks are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league, averaging 14.7 made threes per game (3rd). They have also been one of the most efficient offenses, ranking 6th in scoring at 119 points per game.

At home, the Mavericks are averaging 119.8 points per game, which is 8th in the NBA. Overall, they have outscored the league average in 62.7% of their games this season.

When it comes to pace, Dallas is 11th in the league at 99.7 possessions per game. They have also been one of the more efficient shooting teams, ranking 11th in field goal percentage at 48%.

Nuggets Team Defense

Coming into the game, the Nuggets’ defense has finished two straight games with an increased number of points allowed. Overall, they are 7th in the league at 110.3 points per game allowed. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Nuggets are forcing 11.8 per game, which is 5th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 11th in blocked shots at 5.5 per game.

Mavericks Team Defense

Facing Denver, the Mavericks aims for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 117.7 points allowed per game (22nd). On two point field goal attempts, the Mavericks’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.6% and allowing 36.8% from beyond the arc.

Key Players For The Nuggets And Mavericks

In today’s game, our projections have Nikola Jokic leading the Nuggets with 26 points on 10/17 shooting from the field. During this season, he is delivering an average of 26 points per game, along with 12.2 rebounds.

On the other side, Luka Doncic is our projected leading scorer for the Mavericks. We have him ending the game with a team-high 34 and grabbing 9 rebounds. This season, he is shooting at a field goal percentage of 49.4%, and his scoring average is 34.3 points per game.

Nuggets vs Mavericks Trends

  • In their last three road games, Denver has averaged 113 points per game while allowing 102. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
  • The Mavericks are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 3-2.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 9-1. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.

Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction

As the underdogs with a spread of +3.5, we recommend going with the Mavericks on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 226.5 and given that our model is projecting 234 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.