Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 5/9/2024

The Dallas Mavericks (50-32) travel to face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) on Thursday, May 9th. This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and televised on ESPN. The Thunder are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mavericks are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Mavericks. Tip-off is set for 9:30 ET.

Mavericks vs Thunder

dallas mavericks nba

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder had a big 117-95 win over the Mavericks in the most recent game of this series. Gilgeous-Alexander was just one rebound and one assist shy of a triple-double, finishing with 29 points, nine assists, and nine rebounds. He also hit 50% of his threes. Chet Holmgren was the second-leading scorer for the Thunder with 19 points.

Oklahoma City was favored by 4.5 points heading into the game and easily covered the spread. The Thunder also held the Mavericks to just 16 points in the 4th quarter. Going into the game, the over/under line was 218.5 points, and the 212 combined points fell six and a half points short of that number.

Mavericks Offense Breakdown

Looking at Luka Doncic’s last five games, he has averaged 38.3% shooting from the field and 16.3% from beyond the arc. Despite the poor shooting, he has put up big numbers in terms of points, rebounds, and assists. Kyrie Irving has hit 51.7% of his shots in his last five games and 46.2% of his threes.

Dallas is 3rd in the NBA in three-point attempts this season and are also 3rd in three-point makes at 14.6 per game. Overall, they have hit 36% of their looks from beyond the arc. For the season, they are averaging 117.9 points per game, which is 8th in the league.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

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This season, the Thunder are the NBA’s 3rd ranked scoring offense, at 120.1 points per game. At home, they are 2nd in the league, averaging 122.3 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Thunder are 9th in the league, averaging 99.7 possessions per game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.6 points per game over his last five games on a field goal percentage of 46.6%. In these games, he also averaged 5.8 assists and 6.6 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams has averaged 20.6 points over his last five games, while Chet Holmgren has averaged 16 points and 8.4 rebounds in his last five.

Mavericks Team Defense

So far this season, the Mavericks have been an average defensive team, ranking 18th in the league in points allowed at 114.6 per game. They have been slightly better on the road, giving up 115.1 points per game away from home (16th in the NBA).

Over their last five games, Dallas has been even better on defense, ranking 5th in the league at just 103.4 points per game allowed. During this stretch, opponents have shot 44.8% from the field and 38.8% from three.

On the season, opposing teams have made 62.2% of their three-point attempts vs. the Mavericks, which is slightly higher than their season average. Overall, Dallas has been average in terms of three-pointers made per game allowed (13.1).

Thunder Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Thunder have been one of the best units in the league this season. They are currently 10th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 111.4. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 90.6 points per contest.

One area where Oklahoma City has excelled defensively is in the steals and blocked shots department. They lead the league in both categories, averaging 8.5 steals and 6.6 blocks per game.

For the season, opponents have made 35.9% of their three-point attempts vs. the Thunder. However, over their last five games, they have been even stingier from beyond the arc, allowing just a 28.2% three-point shooting percentage.

Key Players For The Mavericks And Thunder

In today’s game, we anticipate Luka Doncic leading the scoring for the Mavericks, contributing 33 points while shooting 11/24 from the field. This season, he is averaging 33.9 points per game along with 9.2 boards.

On the opposing side, we anticipate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to be the top scorer for the Thunder. Our projection has him finishing the game with 30, and he is expected to secure 5 rebounds. For the season, he has a field goal percentage of 53.5% and is averaging 30.1 points per contest.

Mavericks vs Thunder Trends

  • Although Dallas has a straight up record of 6-4 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-4. The team averaged 107 points per game in these games.
  • Across their last three home contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 108 points per game.
  • The Mavericks have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 3-2 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
  • In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.

Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction

For a point-spread bet in this Mavericks vs. Thunder matchup, we’re leaning towards the Mavericks at +5. Although our projections show the Thunder winning 116-115, we suggest placing your bet on the Mavericks for the point-spread.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 218.5 and given that our model is projecting 231 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.