Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction 5/1/2024

The Miami Heat (46-36) travel to face off against the Boston Celtics (64-18) on Wednesday, May 1st. This game will be played at TD Garden in Boston and televised on TNT. The Celtics are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Heat are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Heat. Tip-off is set for 7:30 ET.

Heat vs Celtics

miami heat nba

The Celtics picked up a 102-88 win over the Heat in the most recent game of this series. Boston’s defense was especially strong in the 2nd quarter, as they held Miami to just 12 points. Heading into the game, the Celtics were favored by 10.5 points and easily covered the spread.

Offensively, the Celtics were led by Derrick White’s 38 points and eight made threes. As a team, Boston shot 37.8% from three-point range. On the other side, the Heat made just nine threes and shot 27.3% from outside. Bam Adebayo had a big game for Miami with 25 points, 17 rebounds, and five assists.

Heat Offense Breakdown

Miami comes into the game as one of the worst scoring teams in the league, averaging 110.1 points per game. Their scoring average on the road is even worse, at 107.8 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Heat are 29th in the league, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.

Both the Heat and Hornets will be without their leading scorers in tonight’s game. Jimmy Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game, and Terry Rozier is averaging 19.8. Butler is also averaging 5 assists per game, while Rozier is at 5.6. Over his last five games, Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists. Tyler Herro is averaging 18.6 points in his last five games.

Celtics Offense Breakdown

boston celtics

This season, Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game, and Jaylen Brown is averaging 23 points per contest. Over their last four games, Tatum is averaging 23.2 points, and Brown is at 22.2. Derrick White is averaging 21.8 points in his last four games while hitting 56.9% of his shots from the field and 47.1% of his threes.

Boston is averaging 122.4 points per game at home this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Overall, they are the 2nd best scoring team at 120.6 points per contest. The Celtics lead the league in three-point attempts, at 42.5 per game, and are connecting on 38% of their looks from beyond the arc.

Heat Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat are one of the best units in the NBA, ranking 3rd in points allowed per game at 108.0. On the road, they have been even stingier, giving up just 106.6 points per contest, which is tops in the league.

So far this season, opponents have scored less than their season average in 82.9% of games against Miami. In terms of three-point shooting, opposing teams have made fewer threes than their season average in 54.9% of games vs. the Heat.

One area where Miami has struggled defensively is on the glass, ranking just 26th in rebounds per game. However, they have been able to make up for that with their ability to force turnovers, ranking 17th in steals per game.

Celtics Team Defense

Coming into tonight’s game, the Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 108.5 points per game, which is good for 5th in the league. They have been even better at home, where they are giving up just 107.7 points per contest (4th).

Over their last five games, Boston has been even stingier, holding opponents to just 99.8 points per game (3rd). During that stretch, they have also done a great job of keeping opponents off the free-throw line, allowing just 10 made free-throws per game (1st).

One area where the Celtics have struggled this season is in the steals department, as they are currently 27th in the NBA in steals per game. However, they have been excellent at protecting the rim, leading the league in blocked shots at 6.6 per game.

Key Players For The Heat And Celtics

For today’s matchup, we project Tyler Herro to lead the scoring for the Heat, putting up 20 points and shooting at a rate of 7/17. During this season, he is delivering an average of 20.8 points per game, along with 5.3 rebounds.

On the other side, Jayson Tatum is our projected leading scorer for the Celtics. We have him ending the game with a team-high 26 and grabbing 8 rebounds. This season, he has put together a field goal percentage of 47.1%, and he is contributing 26.9 points per game on average.

Heat vs Celtics Trends

  • When looking at their past ten road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
  • Across the Celtics last ten home games, the team averaged 114 points per game while allowing 103. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 6-4, while going 7-3 straight-up.
  • Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
  • The Celtics have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread.

Heat vs Celtics Prediction

For a point-spread wager in this Celtics vs. Heat game, we suggest taking the Heat at +13.5. Even though our predictions have the Celtics winning 115-111, we see the Heat as the better choice on the point-spread.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 198.5 and given that our model is projecting 226 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.