Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 3/8/2024

The Miami Heat (35-27) travel to face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder (43-19) on Friday, March 8th. This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and televised on KSBI. The Thunder are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Heat are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Trail Blazers. Tip-off is set for 8:00 ET.

Heat vs Thunder

miami heat nba

The Heat Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

In their most recent matchup, the Heat conveyed a message to the Mavericks with a score of 114-108. the Heat not only lost the game outright but also fell short of covering the spread as +4.5 point underdogs. Concerning the over/under, the total of 222 points remained below the established over/under line of 230.

With an overall record of 35-27, the Heat will need to be at their best to come away with a win today as they are +8.5 point underdogs. When playing on the road this season, the Heat are 18-14 compared to 17-13 at home.

Miami comes in with an overall ATS record of 29-30 so far this season. On the road, the Heat have an ATS record of 17-12 compared to a 12-18 record vs. the spread at home.

The Thunder Are Coming Off A Win

The Thunder notched a win against the Trail Blazers in their most recent game, concluding with a score of 128-120. The game began with the Thunder as -13-point favorites, but their 8 resulted in an ATS loss. Before the game, the over/under line was 224.5 points, and both teams ended up surpassing that mark.

Coming into today’s matchup vs. the Heat, the Thunder have a winning record above .500 at 43-19. Against Western Conference teams, the Thunder are 27-15 and have gone 16-4 in non-conference play.

Currently, Oklahoma City holds an above .500 ATS record of 39-23 so far this year. The Thunder have been unable to cover the spread in their last two games as favorites, and they hold a 11-5 record against the spread when playing as underdogs.

Heat Offense Breakdown

In 62 games games, Miami has an average of 110.7 points per game (27th).

So far this season, the Heat have struggled to score on the road, averaging just 107.9 points per game away from home (28th in the NBA). Overall, Miami is 27th in scoring at 110.7 points per game.

When it comes to pace, the Heat are 29th in the league at 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, Miami is 23rd overall at 46%.

One area where the Heat have excelled is three-point shooting, as they are 6th in the NBA at 37%. In terms of three-point attempts, Miami is 21st in the league.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

oklahoma city thunder

Today, the Thunder enter the game as one of the NBA’s top-scoring teams, averaging 121 points per game (2nd).

The Thunder are one of the most efficient offenses in the league, ranking 2nd in scoring at 121 points per game. At home, they are averaging 123.6 points per game. In terms of pace, they are 11th in the league at 99.8 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Thunder are 2nd in field goal percentage at 50%. They have been particularly efficient from three-point range, leading the league in three-point shooting percentage at 39%. Overall, they are 2nd in true shooting percentage.

Oklahoma City is also one of the top teams in the league in terms of two-point shooting, ranking 5th in two-point shooting percentage. However, they are just 29th in offensive rebounds and 12th in assists.

Heat Team Defense

Coming into today’s game, the Heat’s defense is giving up an average of 110.0 points per contest. In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Heat defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 55.1% while allowing 36.3% from downtown.

Thunder Team Defense

At this time, the Thunder’s defense is positioned 13th in the NBA, permitting 113.4 points per game. On two point field goal attempts, the Thunder’s defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 51.5% and allowing 36.8% from beyond the arc.

Key Players For The Heat And Thunder

For today’s matchup, we project Terry Rozier to lead the scoring for the Heat, putting up 20 points and shooting at a rate of 7/16. For the season, he has been averaging 20.4 points per game, in addition to 4 rebounds.

On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is our projected leading scorer for the Thunder. We have him ending the game with a team-high 31 and grabbing 5 rebounds. For the season, he has a field goal percentage of 54.6% and is averaging 31.1 points per contest.

Heat vs Thunder Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 107 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
  • In their last three games at home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 116 points per game in this stretch.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.
  • Against the spread, the Thunder have put together 1-2 in their last three games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 2-1 straight up.

Heat vs Thunder Prediction

Coming in as the underdogs at +8.5, we have the Heat as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 223.5, and our model projects the Heat and Thunder to reach a combined total of 233 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.