Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors -NBA Prediction

NBA Miami vs Golden State Warriors Prediction 12/28/2023

The Miami Heat (18-12) travel to face off against the Golden State Warriors (15-15) on Thursday, December 28th. This game will be played at Chase Center. The Heat are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Warriors are looking to get back on track from a loss to the 76ers. Tip-off is set for 10:00 ET.

Heat vs Warriors

The Heat Are Coming Off A Win

The Heat picked up a win over the 76ers in their latest game, finishing with a score of 119-113. Heading into the second half, the Heat were leading 63-49.

As they prepare for today’s matchup with the Warriors, the Heat have an 18-12 record and are above .500. In the Eastern Conference, they are currently in 4th place and are in 1st place in the Southeast division.

Miami comes in with an overall ATS record of 14-15 so far this season. This season, Miami has a 8-9 record against the spread when they are the favorites, and they are 6-6 as underdogs.

The Warriors Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Andrew Wiggins scored 22 for Golden State against the Nuggets which was the most on the team. His field goal percentage for the game was 46%. Stephen Curry contributed 18 points, but Golden State lost the game 120-114.

In their last five games, the Warriors are 4-1 and have an overall record of 15-15. Out of their 30 games, the Warriors have gone 11-13 against Western Conference teams and 4-2 in non-conference games.

Golden State has an overall ATS record of 14-15 as they come into today’s game. Currently, the Warriors have a two game ATS win streak when they are favored, and they are 8-4 against the spread as underdogs.

Heat Offense Breakdown

Through 30 games games, Miami is averaging 113.4 points per game (19th). The Heat come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 13 made 3’s per game. Miami is a strong candidate to see their overall offensive numbers improve, as not only are they a good outside shooting unit, but they do a good job taking care of the ball, ranking 12th in fewest turnovers per game.

Warriors Offense Breakdown

Heading into play, the Warriors’ offense is rated 9th in the league in scoring, averaging 117.1 points per contest. In terms of pace, the Warriors are one of the top units in the NBA, averaging 99.7 possessions per game. If the Warriors offense is going to continue to produce at their current level, they would benefit from an improvement in their outside shooting. Currently, they are the 13th ranked team in 3-point shooting percentage.

Heat Team Defense

This season, the Heat’s defense is the 8th ranked defense in the NBA at 8th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 76.7% of their games. Inside the arc, the Heat defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 55.6% and 37.7% from three-point territory.

Warriors Team Defense

At this time, the Warriors’ defense is positioned 19th in the NBA, permitting 115.9 points per game. The Golden State defense has allowed opponents to shoot 35.2% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 46.4% of their field goal attempts vs. Golden State.

Key Players For The Heat And Warriors

In today’s game, our projections have Tyler Herro leading the Heat with 14 points on 5/11 shooting from the field. Throughout this season, his average stands at 24 points per game, along with 5.3 rebounds.

On the flip side, our predictions place Stephen Curry as the leading scorer for the Warriors. We expect him to conclude the game with a team-high 19 while also collecting 3 rebounds. For the season, he has a field goal percentage of 46.5% and is averaging 27.9 points per contest.

Heat vs Warriors Trends

  • Through their last ten road contests, the Heat offense has averaged 111 points per game while allowing an average of 105. Miami posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 6-3-1 ATS.
  • In their last three games at home, the Warriors have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 115 points per game in this stretch.
  • Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 4-6.
  • The last ten games that Golden State was favored, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 8-2 straight up.


Heat vs Warriors Prediction


As the underdogs with a spread of +2.5, we recommend going with the Heat on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 227.5, and our model projects the Heat and Warriors to reach a combined total of 229 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.