Florida State vs Florida ncaaf prediction

NCAAF Florida State vs Florida Gators Prediction 11/25/2023

The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) travel to face off against the Florida Gators (5-6) on Saturday, November 25th. This game will be played at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville and televised on ESPN. Florida State is coming off a win in their previous game, while Florida is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Missouri. Kickoff is set for 7:00 ET.

Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators

The Florida State Seminoles Are Coming Off A Win

Most recently, Florida State faced off with North Alabama and picked up an easy 58-13 win. In the win vs. North Alabama, quarterback Tate Rodemaker finished with a QB rating of 117.48 while completing 13 of 23 passes for 217 yards. He also ended the game with two touchdowns.


Florida State’s current record is 11-0 as they prepare for this week’s game. This year, they’ve played three road games and six matchups.

So far, Florida State has been favored eight times and the underdog in one game. This has led to an ATS record of 5-4 and an average scoring differential of +23.2. Across 11 games, the average over/under line in Florida State’s matchups is 51.9 points. These games have seen an average combined score of 57 points, resulting in an OU record of 6-3.

The Florida Gators Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

In their most recent loss to Missouri, the Gators trailed by -6 going into the 4th quarter and ended up losing by a score 33-31. In the loss to Missouri, quarterback Graham Mertz concluded with a QB rating of 105.85 while connecting on 14 of 21 passes for 183 yards. Moreover, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Florida and Missouri combined for 64 points in the game, which was enough to surpass the over/under line of 56 points. Even though Florida lost straight-up, they did cover the spread as 12.5-point underdogs.

So far, the Florida Gators are 5-6, including going 1-4 on the road and 3-1 at home.

Florida’s average scoring differential for the season is +1.7 leading to an ATS mark of 4-5. The Gators have been favored two times and the underdog in seven games In 11 games played, the average over/under line for Florida’s games has been set at 51.5 points. These contests have seen an average combined score of 57.5 points, resulting in an OU record of 6-3.

Florida State Offense Breakdown

As they prepare to face the Florida, the Seminoles’ offense is averaging 163.5 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per attempt. Nationally, they are 62nd in rushing yards and 18th in passing yards, on an average of 289.4 yards per matchup. Florida State has averaged 40.1 points per game so far. This figure places them 7th in the nation.

So far, Jordan Travis has accumulated 2755 passing yards while averaging 13.3 per completion. His completion rate for the year is 63.9%, and he’s tossed 20 touchdowns.

Florida Offense Breakdown

Florida comes into the game with an offense averaging 29.6, which places them at 46th in the NCAA rankings. Their passing game has them ranked 31st nationally, with an average of 272.7 passing yards. In the rushing department, they’re 68th in the nation, with 374 rushing attempts per game for the season.

Quarterback Graham Mertz leads the team with 2878 passing yards while completing 72.8% of his passes. So far, he is averaging 8.1 yards per passing attempt.

Florida State Team Defense

The Florida State defense holds the 58th position in points allowed, allowing 16.9 points per game. Teams have an average of 183.5 passing yards per game against them (33rd nationally). In terms of rushing, they’ve given up 139.8 rushing yards, placing them 61st in college football.

Florida Team Defense

On defense, the Gators defense has 19 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. So far, teams are scoring 27.9 points per game against them (115th). In terms of pass defense, they’re ranked 117th in the NCAA, allowing 235.1 passing yards per game. Moreover, Florida’s run defense is allowing 163.5 rushing yards per contest.

Florida State vs Florida Trends

  • On the road, Florida State has gone 8-2 vs. the spread.
  • Florida is 2-1 ATS in their last home games.
  • In the ten most recent times they were the underdog, Florida has put together an ATS record of 5-5.
  • Over their last three games as the betting favorite, Florida State has an ATS record of 0-3.

Florida State vs Florida Prediction

I’m leaning towards Florida State with a point-spread at to cover in this matchup. After a strong showing in their last game, where they had a solid ground game against North Alabama, Florida State should pick up another win and cover. My bet will be on Florida State to cover the spread before kickoff.

I’m taking the over with the over/under line set at 51.5. So far this season, games involving Florida have generated an average combined score of 57.5 points, and I believe this game will exceed 51.5.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.