kentucky vs louisville ncaaf prediction

NCAAF Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Prediction 11/25/2023

The Kentucky Wildcats (6-5) travel to face off against the Louisville Cardinals (10-1) on Saturday, November 25th. This game will be played at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville and televised on ABC. Louisville is coming off a win in their previous game, while Kentucky is looking to get back on track from a loss to the South Carolina. Kickoff is set for 12:00 ET.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals

The Kentucky Wildcats Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Even though Kentucky led by seven at the half, they stil lost their most recent game by a score of 17-14 to South Carolina. In the loss against South Carolina, quarterback Devin Leary achieved a QB rating of 62.25, completing 17 of 34 passes for 171 yards. Additionally, he contributed one touchdown to the game.

The betting lines going into the game were 52 on the over/under and Kentucky as 2.5-point underdogs. As they combined for 31 points, this was a hit for the under and Kentucky was handed an ATS loss.

So far, the Kentucky Wildcats are 6-5, including going 2-2 on the road and 3-3 at home.

Against the spread, Kentucky has gone 5-5 this season. The Wildcats have been favored six times compared to four games as the underdog. Over 11 games, the average over/under line for Kentucky’s games has been 48.2 points. The total score in these matchups has averaged 52 points, resulting in an OU record of 7-3.

The Louisville Cardinals Are Coming Off A Win

Despite going into the 4th quarter trailing by -5, the Cardinals took down Miami (38-31) in their most recent game. In the win against Miami, quarterback Jack Plummer achieved a QB rating of 106.59, completing 24 of 37 passes for 308 yards. Additionally, he contributed three touchdowns to the game.

Going into the game, the oddsmakers had this one as a pick em, giving Louisville an ATS win. The team’s combined 69 points surpassed the over/under line of 46.5.

So far, the Louisville Cardinals are 10-1, including going 3-1 on the road and 6-0 at home.

Heading into this week’s matchup with Kentucky, the Cardinals have been favored in eight games and the underdog in one. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 5-5. So far this season, the average over/under line for Louisville’s games has been 49.8 points. The Cardinals have an over/under record of 5-5 heading into this week’s game.

Kentucky Offense Breakdown

The Wildcats are currently ranked 99th in college football with 290 rushing attempts per game. In terms of rush yards, they are at 135.3 rushing yards per game, which is 92nd in the nation. Looking at their production in the passing game, they are averaging 29.5 attempts per game and gain an average of 203.5 passing yards. Overall, they hold the 56th spot with 27.7 points per game.

Devin Leary has thrown for 2234 yards this season, with an average of 12.3 per completion. His completion percentage is 56.2%, and he’s recorded 20 touchdowns.

Louisville Offense Breakdown

Louisville’s rushing attack is ranked 42nd in college football with 405 rushing attempts per game. This has translated into an average of 187.4 rushing yards per game, placing them 25th nationally. On average, they are attempting 28.5 passes per game leading to 256.3 passing yards per contest. In terms of scoring, they hold the 25th position, averaging 33.2 points per game.

Jack Plummer leads the team in passing yards this season with 2710. He’s averaging 13.8 per completion and holds a 65.4% completion rate, having thrown 19 touchdowns.

Kentucky Team Defense

So far this season, the Wildcats’ defense has given up 110.4 rushing yards per game against the run (182nd). Opponents are averaging 238.3 passing yards and opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 96.7 against Kentucky. In terms of points allowed, they are 65th in the NCAA.

Louisville Team Defense

The Cardinals defense will take the field with 27 sacks and are 1st QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re at 18.4 points per game (64th). Against the pass, the team is 84th in the NCAA, allowing 219 passing yards per game. Additionally, Louisville’s run defense has 100.1 rushing yards per contest.

Kentucky vs Louisville Trends

  • On the road, Kentucky has gone 6-4 vs. the spread.
  • Louisville is 1-2 ATS in their last home games.
  • Louisville’s ATS record in their ten most recent games as the underdog is 4-6.
  • The previous ten time that Kentucky was favored, they are 6-4 against the spread.

Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction

Coming into this game, Louisville’s offense has been a below average group at converting on third downs. I’m not counting on them suddenly figuring this out and like Kentucky +7.

The analysis we’ve been running for this game has Kentucky and Louisville finishing with a combined 51 points. With the over/under line sitting at 51.5, I’m getting a bet down on the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.