missouri vs arkansas ncaaf prediction

NCAAF Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Prediction 11/24/2023

The Missouri Tigers (9-2) travel to face off against the Arkansas Razorbacks (4-7) on Friday, November 24th. This game will be played at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville and televised on CBS. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 4:00 ET.

Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks

The Missouri Tigers Are Coming Off A Win

The Tigers are coming off a game that featured plenty of scoring, pulling out a 33-31 win over Florida. In Missouri’s recent win, quarterback Brady Cook not only tossed one touchdown but also rushed for one touchdown. Throughout the game, he threw for a total of 331 yards while achieving a completion rate of 58.8%.

Going into the game as 12.5-point favorites, Missouri’s 2 point win wasn’t enough to cover. The over hit in the game as the over/under betting line was 56 at kickoff.

The Missouri Tigers take on the Arkansas with a 9-2 record, including 3-1 on the road and 5-1 at home.

Missouri has gone into five games as the favorite this season and five games as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 7-3. This season, Missouri has posted an over/under record of 6-4 through 11 games. On average their games have combined for 55.9 points.

The Arkansas Razorbacks Are Coming Off A Win

Arkansas is coming off a 44-20 win over the Florida International. The Razorbacks benefited from a strong first-half, going into halftime with a 31-7 lead. In the win vs. Florida International, quarterback KJ Jefferson concluded with a QB rating of 110.27, connecting on 15 of 28 passes for 187 yards. He also added three touchdowns to his performance.

With their 64 combined points, Arkansas and Florida International surpassed the over/under line of 50. Although Arkansas won straight-up, it wasn’t enough to cover at -27.5.

So far, the Arkansas Razorbacks are 4-7, including going 0-3 on the road and 2-4 at home.

So far, Arkansas has been favored five times and the underdog in four games. This has led to an ATS record of 3-6 and an average scoring differential of +1.6. Over 11 games, the average over/under line for Arkansas’ games has been 51.4 points. The total score in these matchups has averaged 53.8 points, resulting in an OU record of 5-4.

Missouri Offense Breakdown

On offense, the Tigers come in with the 57th ranked offense in terms of passing attempts and are averaging 288.2 passing yards per game. In the running game, they are 49th in terms of attempts.

The top passer for Missouri is Brady Cook, who has accumulated 3077 passing yards and boasts a completion rate of 67%. He’s currently averaging 9.3 yards per passing attempt.

Arkansas Offense Breakdown

The Razorbacks’ offense is set to face Missouri while averaging 140.6 rushing yards per game and 3 yards per attempt. In the national rankings, they currently stand at 89th for rushing yards and 97th for passing yards, with an average of 195.6 yards per matchup. Overall, Arkansas is putting up 27.7 points per game, which is 56th nationally.

Leading the team in passing yards is KJ Jefferson with 2105 yards. In addition, he is 1st on the team in rushing yards. This season, he’s carried the ball 159 times for 432 yards while boasting a completion rate of 63.9%.

Missouri Team Defense

This season, the Tigers’ defense has allowed 124.6 rushing yards per contest, placing them 166th. Opponents are averaging 233.7 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 94.7 when facing Missouri. They currently hold the 70th spot in NCAA points allowed.

Arkansas Team Defense

Arkansas’ defense holds the 140th rank in passing yards allowed per game as they head into this game. On average, opponents have made 27 passing attempts against the Razorbacks. They have given up 26.1 points per game, which places them at 103rd in college football. In the rush defense category, they rank 72nd in the NCAA.

Missouri vs Arkansas Trends

  • Missouri’s ten most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 8-2 against the spread.
  • Arkansas is 4-1 Against the spread in their last five games at home.
  • In the five most recent times they were the underdog, Arkansas has put together an ATS record of 4-1.
  • Missouri are 2-1 in their last three games as favorites.

Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction

An intriguing matchup to watch is Missouri’s passing game against the Arkansas secondary. In their last game, Arkansas had difficulties containing Florida International. I’m leaning towards Missouri to cover as 7.5-point favorites.

On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 54.5. This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 55 points.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.