NCAAF: New Mexico State vs. Auburn Prediction 11/18/2023

The New Mexico State Aggies (8-3) travel to face off against the Auburn Tigers (6-4) on Saturday, November 18th. This game will be played at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn and televised on SECN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 4:00 ET.

New Mexico State Aggies vs Auburn Tigers

The New Mexico State Aggies Are Coming Off A Win

New Mexico State most recently took down Western Kentucky by a score of 38-29. The Aggies went into the 4th quarter of this game leading by 14. Quarterback Diego Pavia threw for two touchdowns in New Mexico State’s win over Western Kentucky. Overall, he had a passer rating of 102.95 while completing 58.3% of his passes for 141 yards.

Not only did New Mexico State win straight-up, they also covered the spread as 4.5-point underdogs. The team’s 67 combined points surpassed the over/under line of 54.

So far, the New Mexico State Aggies are 8-3, including going 4-2 on the road and 2-1 at home.

New Mexico State has gone into four games as the favorite this season and five games as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 7-2. Through 11 games, the average over/under line in New Mexico State’s games is 51.9 points. Their games have averaged a combined 49.5 points leading to an OU record of 3-6.

The Auburn Tigers Are Coming Off A Win

In their most recent game, Auburn matched up with Arkansas and came out on top with a 48-10 win. Heading into the 4th quarter of the game, Auburn held a 27-point lead. In Auburn’s win over Arkansas, quarterback Payton Thorne had three touchdowns through the air and added one touchdown on the ground. Throughout the game, he threw for a total of 163 yards while achieving a completion rate of 60.0%.

Not only did Auburn win straight-up, they also covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs. The team’s 58 combined points surpassed the over/under line of 47.

So far, the Auburn Tigers are 6-4, including going 3-2 on the road and 2-2 at home.

Heading into this week’s matchup with New Mexico State, the Tigers have been favored in four games and the underdog in five. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 5-4. The average point total in Auburn’s 10 games is currently 49.8 points per game. This has led to an over/under record of 4-5 for the Tigers.

New Mexico State Offense Breakdown

New Mexico State comes into the game with an offense averaging 28.7, which places them at 35th in the NCAA rankings. Their passing game has them ranked 61st nationally, with an average of 214.2 passing yards. In the rushing department, they’re 5th in the nation, with 373 rushing attempts per game for the season.

Diego Pavia is New Mexico State’s top passer with 2257 passing yards. In addition, he’s 1st on the team in rushing yards on his 125 attempts, amassing 705 yards. His overall completon percentage for the season is at 59.7%.

Auburn Offense Breakdown

In the rushing game, the Tigers are currently 16th in college football with 405 attempts per game. This has resulted in an average of 210 rushing yards per game, putting them 11th nationally. Their passing game has averaged 23.9 passes and 164.4 yards per game. When it comes to scoring, they are 47th, averaging 29.3 points per game.

With 1432 passing yards under his belt, Payton Thorne leads the team through the air. He’s also 2nd on the team in rushing yards. This season, he’s contributed on the ground with 93 carries and 425 rushing yards, all while maintaining a completion rate of 63.5%.

New Mexico State Team Defense

New Mexico State’s defense is ranked 79th in passing yards allowed per game as they prepare for this matchup. Opponents have attempted an average of 33 passing attempts against the Aggies. They have given up 20.8 points per game so far, placing them 83rd in college football. In the NCAA’s rush defense category, they are 60th.

Auburn Team Defense

Ranked 157th in passing yards allowed per game, Auburn’s defense gets ready to take on New Mexico State. Opponents have attempted an average of 28.2 passes per game against the Tigers. They’re allowing 20.5 points per contest, placing them 73rd in college football. Their rush defense ranks 91st in the NCAA.

New Mexico State vs Auburn Trends

  • When playing on the road, New Mexico State has an ATS mark of 3-0 vs. the spread.
  • Auburn’s ATS record at home (last three) is 2-1.
  • In the three most recent times they were the underdog, Auburn has put together an ATS record of 1-2.
  • New Mexico State’s record vs. the spread in their three most recent games as the favorite is 3-0.

New Mexico State vs Auburn Prediction

After struggling to move the ball in the passing game against Western Kentucky, I’m not expecting much from Auburn this week. This is why I’m leaning towards New Mexico State as 23.5-point underdogs.

Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 48.5 points. The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 50 points.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.