NCAAF: New Mexico vs. Fresno State Prediction 11/18/2023

The New Mexico Lobos (3-7) travel to face off against the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2) on Saturday, November 18th. This game will be played at Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno and televised on FS1. Both New Mexico and Fresno State will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 ET.

New Mexico Lobos vs Fresno State Bulldogs

The New Mexico Lobos Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

After trailing by -10 at halftime, New Mexico could not make a comeback and lost their most recent game 42-14 to Boise State. Devon Dampier finished with 200 yards against Boise State while going 17 for 26 for a completion percentage of 65.4%. He ended the game without a rushing or passing touchdown.

Going into the game, New Mexico was the 27.5-point underdogs and in addition to losing straight-up, they did not cover the spread. The team’s combined 56 points was not enough to surpass the over/under line of 59.

So far, the New Mexico Lobos are 3-7, including going 0-4 on the road and 1-3 at home.

New Mexico’s average scoring differential for the season is -9.9 leading to an ATS mark of 2-6. The Lobos have been favored one time and the underdog in seven game New Mexico has put together an over/under record of 6-2 throughout this season. The average combined score in their games has been 62.1 points, and the standard over/under line has stood at 52.3 points.

The Fresno State Bulldogs Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Fresno State will be looking to rebound from a 42-18 loss to San Jose State in their most recent game. The Bulldogs fell behind early, trailing by -18 after the first quarter. In the loss to San Jose State, quarterback Logan Fife concluded with a QB rating of 64.58 while connecting on 11 of 21 passes for 115 yards. Moreover, he contributed one touchdown to the game.

Fresno State and San Jose State combined for 60 points in the game, which was enough to surpass the over/under line of 52.5 points. In addition to losing straight-up, Fresno State did not cover the spread as 2.5-point underdogs.

With a 8-2 record, the Fresno State Bulldogs take on New Mexico. Their road record so far is (3-2) and at home (4-0).

So far, Fresno State has been favored seven times and the underdog in two games. This has led to an ATS record of 4-5 and an average scoring differential of +8.7. Fresno State has put together an over/under record of 6-3 throughout this season. The average combined score in their games has been 56.1 points, and the standard over/under line has stood at 50.4 points.

New Mexico Offense Breakdown

On offense, the Lobos come in with the 70th ranked offense in terms of passing attempts and are averaging 223 passing yards per game. In the running game, they are 59th in terms of attempts.

Dylan Hopkins leads the team in passing yards this season with 1836. He’s averaging 13.3 per completion and holds a 59% completion rate, having thrown 11 touchdowns.

Fresno State Offense Breakdown

The Bulldogs’ offense is gearing up to take on New Mexico, with an average of 107.4 rushing yards per game and an 3 yards per attempt. In the college football rankings, they are currently in 112th place for rushing yards and 19th place for passing yards, accumulating an average of 290.4 yards per contest. Fresno State’s overall scoring average is at 32.4 points per game, placing them 32nd rank nationally.

So far, Mikey Keene has accumulated 2348 passing yards while averaging 10.6 per completion. His completion rate for the year is 67.1%, and he’s tossed 21 touchdowns.

New Mexico Team Defense

New Mexico’s defense sits at 141st for points allowed, allowing 36 points per game. So far, teams have been averaging 243.1 passing yards per game against them (126th nationally). On the ground, they’re yielding 176.3 rushing yards, ranking them 130th in college football.

Fresno State Team Defense

Defensively, the Bulldogs defense has come up with 22 sacks this season and are 1st in quarterback hurries. Overall, they are allowing 23.7 points per contest (86th). Against the pass, they are 86th in the NCAA, having allowed 223.1 passing yards allowed per game. Fresno State is giving up 145.7 rushing yards per contest.

New Mexico vs Fresno State Trends

  • Looking at New Mexico’s ten most recent road games, they have put together a record vs. the spread of 3-7.
  • Fresno State is 0-3 ATS in their last home games.
  • Looking back at the last three times Fresno State went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 2-1.
  • Over their last five games as the betting favorite, New Mexico has an ATS record of 2-3.

New Mexico vs Fresno State Prediction

The Fresno State passing game has faced issues with turnovers. As the underdogs at away, my pick is New Mexico to cover the spread at +23.

Fresno State comes into this week’s game with an average margin of +9.3 against their over/under lines. With an over/under of 56.5, our prediction is that this game will go over, resulting in a combined total of 57 points.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.