Southern Miss vs Mississippi State ncaaf betting

NCAAF: Southern Miss vs Mississippi St Prediction 11/18/2023

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-7) travel to face off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-6) on Saturday, November 18th. This game will be played at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville and televised on SEC. Southern Miss is coming off a win in their previous game, while Mississippi State is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Texas A&M. Kickoff is set for 12:00 ET.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles Are Coming Off A Win

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles most recently faced off against Louisiana, picking up a 34-31 win. Southern Miss needed overtime to finish the job, after they were tied with Louisiana 28-28 after regulation. Quarterback Billy Wiles threw for one touchdown in Southern Miss’ win over Louisiana. Overall, he had a passer rating of 110.74 while completing 61.5% of his passes for 99 yards.

Not only did Southern Miss win straight-up, they also covered the spread as 9-point underdogs. The team’s 65 combined points surpassed the over/under line of 52.

With a 3-7 record, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles take on Mississippi State. Their road record so far is (0-4) and at home (1-3).

Heading into this week’s matchup with Mississippi State, the Golden Eagles have been favored in three games and the underdog in five. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 2-6. So far this season, the average over/under line for Southern Miss’ games has been 53.2 points. The Golden Eagles have an over/under record of 5-3 heading into this week’s game.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Bulldogs could never recover from a rough first quarter in their most recent game vs. Texas A&M, as they trailed 17-7 after the first period. Mississippi State ended up dropping the game 51-10. Against Texas A&M, Mike Wright threw for 68 yards against Texas A&M, but did throw a touchdown pass. Overall his passer rating was 79.86 on a completion percentage of 55.6%.

Looking at the over/under in this matchup, the line was 40 and with their 61 points, the over hit. Against the spread, Mississippi State went into the game as 16.5-point underdogs giving them an ATS and straight-up loss.

This season, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are currently 4-6. So far this season, they have played four road games and four at home.

So far, Mississippi State has been favored one time and the underdog in seven games. This has led to an ATS record of 1-7 and an average scoring differential of -6.8. This season, Mississippi State has posted an over/under record of 5-3 through 10 games. On average their games have combined for 49.6 points.

Southern Miss Offense Breakdown

Southern Miss enters the game on offense with an average of 24.1, ranking them 73rd in the NCAA. Their passing game has them at 93rd in the nation, with an average of 201.5 passing yards per game. On the ground, they’re at 53rd in rushing yards, with an average of 400 rushing attempts per game this season.

This season, Billy Wiles has thrown for 1845 yards while maintaining an average of 12.2 per completion. His completion percentage stands at 53.2%, and he’s recorded 10 touchdowns.

Mississippi State Offense Breakdown

The Bulldogs’ offense is gearing up to take on Southern Miss, with an average of 142.8 rushing yards per game and an 4 yards per attempt. In the college football rankings, they are currently in 85th place for rushing yards and 106th place for passing yards, accumulating an average of 183.1 yards per contest. Mississippi State’s overall scoring average is at 21.4 points per game, placing them 86th rank nationally.

Will Rogers has accumulated 1275 passing yards this season, with an average of 12.1 per completion. His completion rate for the year stands at 61.4%, and he’s tossed 10 touchdowns.

Southern Miss Team Defense

The Southern Miss defense holds the 139th position in points allowed, allowing 35.3 points per game. Teams have an average of 244.1 passing yards per game against them (129th nationally). In terms of rushing, they’ve given up 181.4 rushing yards, placing them 140th in college football.

Mississippi State Team Defense

The Bulldogs defense faces off against Southern Miss with 23 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re giving up 28.2 points per game which is 111th in the nation. Against the pass, they’re 85th in the NCAA, allowing 221.9 passing yards per game. Mississippi State’s run defense is yielding 144.8 rushing yards per contest.

Southern Miss vs Mississippi State Trends

  • When playing on the road, Southern Miss has an ATS mark of 2-1 vs. the spread.
  • At home, Mississippi State has gone 1-2 against the spread (last three).
  • Bulldogs is 1-4 in their last five games as underdogs.
  • The previous ten time that Southern Miss was favored, they are 6-4 against the spread.

Southern Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction

Mississippi State has struggled with turnovers in their passing game lately. As the away underdogs, I’m leaning towards Southern Miss to cover the spread at +14.

Southern Miss’ games have seen a combined average of 59.4 points this season. Given the current over/under line of 46.5, I’m going with the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

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