troy vs southern miss ncaaf prediction

NCAAF Troy Trojans vs Southern Miss Prediction 11/25/2023

The Troy Trojans (9-2) travel to face off against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-8) on Saturday, November 25th. This game will be played at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg and televised on ESNU. Troy is coming off a win in their previous game, while Southern Miss is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Mississippi State. Kickoff is set for 12:00 ET.

Troy Trojans vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles

The Troy Trojans Are Coming Off A Win

Most recently, Troy matched up against Louisiana and won by a score of 31-24. Quarterback Gunnar Watson threw for three touchdowns in Troy’s win over Louisiana. Overall, he had a passer rating of 106.79 while completing 54.8% of his passes for 199 yards.

With their 55 combined points, Troy and Louisiana surpassed the over/under line of 47. Although Troy won straight-up, it wasn’t enough to cover at -16.5.

With a 9-2 record, the Troy Trojans take on Southern Miss. Their road record so far is (4-1) and at home (4-1).

So far, Troy has been favored eight times and the underdog in two games. This has led to an ATS record of 6-4 and an average scoring differential of +12.5. Heading into this week’s game, Troy’s over/under record is 3-7. Their average margin against their over/under lines is currently -6.1 with their games averaging 45.8 points per game.

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Against Mississippi State, the Golden Eagles trailed by -20 going into the 4th quarter and ended up losing by a score of 41-20. In the loss vs. Mississippi State, quarterback Billy Wiles finished with a QB rating of 66.93 while completing 9 of 16 passes for 89 yards. He also ended the game with one touchdown.

Southern Miss and Mississippi State combined for 61 points in the game, which was enough to surpass the over/under line of 47.5 points. In addition to losing straight-up, Southern Miss did not cover the spread as 18-point underdogs.

So far, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles are 3-8, including going 0-5 on the road and 1-3 at home.

Southern Miss’ average scoring differential for the season is -12.1 leading to an ATS mark of 2-7. The Golden Eagles have been favored three times and the underdog in six games This season, Southern Miss holds an over/under record of 6-3. On average, their games have produced a combined total of 59.5 points, with the typical over/under line set at 52.6 points.

Troy Offense Breakdown

In the rushing game, the Trojans are currently 52nd in college football with 391 attempts per game. This has resulted in an average of 153.6 rushing yards per game, putting them 72nd nationally. Their passing game has averaged 32.5 passes and 269.2 yards per game. When it comes to scoring, they are 48th, averaging 29.2 points per game.

Gunnar Watson has accumulated 2848 passing yards this season, with an average of 13.6 per completion. His completion rate for the year stands at 60.8%, and he’s tossed 24 touchdowns.

Southern Miss Offense Breakdown

Southern Miss’ offense has put up an average of 23.7 points per game, placing them 72nd in the NCAA rankings. Through the air, they’ve gained 196 passing yards on average, ranking 96th in the nation. On the ground, they’re holding the 58th position in rushing yards, with 441 rushing attempts per game this season.

So far, Billy Wiles has accumulated 1934 passing yards while averaging 12.1 per completion. His completion rate for the year is 53.3%, and he’s tossed 11 touchdowns.

Troy Team Defense

The Troy defense, going into this week’s game, holds 56th place for points allowed, allowing 16.6 points per game. Opponents have been gaining an average of 202.8 passing yards each game against them (55th in the country). On the ground, they’re yielding 98.8 rushing yards, ranking them 19th in college football.

Southern Miss Team Defense

Southern Miss’ defense ranks 148th in points allowed, with 35.8 points given up per game. Teams have been averaging 235 passing yards against them (116th nationally). On the ground, they’ve conceded 186.7 rushing yards, putting them 144th in college football.

Troy vs Southern Miss Trends

  • Troy is 3-0 ATS in their last road games.
  • At home, Southern Miss has gone 5-5 against the spread (last ten).
  • Southern Miss’ ATS record in their three most recent games as an underdog is 2-1.
  • The previous ten time that Troy was favored, they are 6-4 against the spread.

Troy vs Southern Miss Prediction

One of the main reasons I’m taking Troy at -16.5 is the fact that they come in with a strong pass rush. Look for this to cause problems up-front for Southern Miss. I’d recommend taking the Troy Trojans on the spread.

With the over/under line sitting at 47.5, my bet is to take the over. So far, Southern Miss have combined with their opponents to average 59.5 points per game, look for this game to surpass 47.5.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.