If you followed my NFL picks this week, you know where I’m going with this. San Francisco -8 vs. Detroit was a true heartbreaker, and I was one of the fortunate ones who got it at -8. A lot of my fellow bettors out there were not as lucky, as the line moved to -9.5 before kickoff.
For those of you who didn’t bet this game, allow me to set the scene. The 49ers went into the half up by three touchdowns. They added a fourth to their lead about halfway through the 3rd quarter to make it 38-10. So I’m thinking, “Easy money, right?” Then the Lions scored with about four minutes left in the quarter, and I immediately got a bad feeling. I even texted my buddy, who also backed the Niners, “This game has back door cover written all over it.” Sure enough, Detroit tacks on a garbage time TD and gets the 2-point conversion. Then they recover the onside kick and march down and score with a minute left, also capped off by a 2-point conversion. They were even in position to tie with a few seconds left after a Deebo Samuel fumble but came up short. But it doesn’t matter – They pushed our -8 and covered the 9.5.
Detroit was in a similar situation in the preseason. The Lions were +6.5 against Pittsburgh and were down big going into the 4th. They scored 20 unanswered points to cover the 6.5. I was on the right side of that one, and even tweeted, “Dan Campbell’s boys don’t quit.”
Morale of the story: Get in on big spreads early, and Dan Campbell’s boys don’t quit. Remember that for later in the season.