NFL: Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction 12/31/2023

The New England Patriots (4-11) travel to face off against the Buffalo Bills (9-6) on Sunday, December 31st. This game will be played at Highmark Stadium in Highmark Stadium and televised on CBS. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 1:00 ET.

Patriots vs Bills

The Patriots Are Coming Off A Win

The Patriots came out on top in their previous game against the Broncos, with the game ending in a score of 26-23. Besides their outright victory, the Patriots also covered the spread as 7-point underdogs.

Offensively, Bailey Zappe ended with 256 passing yards with a completion rate of 75%. The Patriots ran the ball 21 times, gaining 59 yards. The team converted 3 of 13 third-down opportunities.

Facing off against the Broncos in their recent game, the Patriots defense struggled to contain the ground attack, allowing 77.29007633587787 first downs on rushing plays. In total, Denver accumulated 83 rushing yards against the Patriots’ defense and 276 yards overall.

During this season, the Patriots have an overall record of 4-11, which has them 4th in the AFC-East. Their performance includes 3-8 as underdogs and 1-3 when they are favored.

Looking at their ATS performance so far, the Patriots are above .500 at 4-10-1. Their average scoring margin is -7.3. Currently, the Patriots have an average over/under line of 40 points for this season. Their games have been averaging 35.6 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 6-9.

Patriots Injury Report

Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
Cole Strange – Knee (Out)
Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
Kendrick Bourne – Knee (Out)
Conor McDermott – Concussion (Out)
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Ankle (Questionable)
Jabrill Peppers – Hamstring (Questionable)
Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
Riley Reiff – Knee (Out)
Matthew Slater – Hamstring (Questionable)
Hunter Henry – Knee (Questionable)
Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
Rhamondre Stevenson – Ankle (Questionable)
Calvin Anderson – Illness (Out)
Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)
J.C. Jackson – Personal (Out)

The Bills Are Coming Off A Win

After a 24-22 victory over the Chargers, the Bills are looking for another win in week 17. Although they won the game, the Bills failed to cover the spread against the Chargers, despite being favored by 12.5.

Offensively, Josh Allen finished with 237 passing yards while completing 71% of his passes. On the ground, the Bills ran the ball 30 times for 105 yards. The team went 5/10 on third down.

The Bills’ defense wrapped up their last game with five sacks and one interception. Additionally, the team’s secondary yielded 175 passing yards, while the rush defense permitted 98 rushing yards.

This season, the Bills hold the 2nd position in the AFC-East with an overall record of 9-6. In non-conference games, they have a record of 4-1, and in AFC action, they are 5-5.

This season, the Bills boast an above .500 record versus the spread, currently standing at 6-9. Their average scoring margin for this season is +8.5. Buffalo games have averaged 45.3 points so far this season, which is 11th in the NFL. Their over/under record is 5-10, with an average OU line of 46.2 points.

Bills Injury Report

Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Questionable)
Kaiir Elam – Ankle (Questionable)
Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
A.J. Epenesa – Ribs (Questionable)
Kameron Cline – Undisclosed (Out)
Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
Ty Johnson – Shoulder (Questionable)
Damien Harris – Neck (Out)
Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
Matt Milano – Lower Leg (Out)
Micah Hyde – Neck (Questionable)
DaQuan Jones – Pectoral (Questionable)
Jordan Phillips – Wrist (Out)

Patriots Offense Breakdown

New England’s offense comes in with an average of 14.1 points per game, which is currently 29th in the league.

Looking at their passing game, the Patriots come in with an average of 189.8 passing yards per game, which is 24th in the league. Presently, 59.4% of their first downs are credited to the passing game.

Looking at their ground game, the Patriots have been carrying the ball an average of 24.7 times per game and are 24th in rushing yards. They have an average of 3.8 yards per rushing attempt.

Bills Offense Breakdown

The Buffalo offense is currently positioned 6th in the league, scoring an average of 26.9 points per contest.

So far this season, Buffalo’s passing game is 16th in passing attempts. Their average of 243.7 passing yards per game places them 9th in the NFL rankings.

When it comes to rushing, the Bills are averaging 4.3 yards per attempt while running the ball an average of 29.3 times per game. At 130.5 rushing yards per contest, they are 7th in the league.

Patriots Team Defense

The New England defense has recorded 16 takeaways this season, which places them 10th in the NFL. In terms of points allowed, their average of 21.5 is 16th in the league while giving up 306.1 yards per contest.

Bills Team Defense

Thus far, the Bills’ defense has given up an average of 310.2 yards per game and 18.4 points per contest (4th). Going into this game, they’ve allowed a completion percentage of 66.1% and have surrendered 17 passing touchdowns. When it comes to run defense, they rank 16th in the NFL.

Patriots vs Bills Trends

Through their last ten road games, New England has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 18 points per game.
Through their last three home contests, the Bills offense has averaged 26 points per game while allowing an average of 25. Buffalo posted an overall record of 2-1 while going 1-2 ATS.
Through their last three games as the underdog, the Patriots have an ATS record of 2-0-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.
Through their last three games as the favorite, the Bills have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 3-0.

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

New England’s pass defense was able to contain Denver’s passing attack in their recent game. Even as 12-point underdogs on their away turf, I believe they have what it takes to cover against Buffalo.

Not only does our model have a projected total of 47 points in this matchup, but the eye test has me feeling this line of 41 is low. I like the Patriots and Bills to exceed 41 points.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.

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