North Carolina State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAB Betting Prediction

North Carolina State vs North Carolina Prediction 3/2/2024

The North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-11) travel to face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-6) on Saturday, March 2nd. This game will be played at Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill and televised on ESPN. North Carolina is coming off a win in their previous game, while North Carolina State is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Florida State. Tip-off is set for 4:00 ET.

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels

The North Carolina State Wolfpack Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

North Carolina State heads into its matchup with North Carolina as an underdog, as the Wolfpack are getting 11.5 points. This season, they have gone 2-8 when not favored. So far, they have a record of 17-11 and have gone 9-8 in Atlantic Coast Conference action.

In their last game, the Wolfpack lost to Florida State by a score of 90-83. So far this season, they have gone 5-7 on the road, and over their last 10 games, their record stands at 4-6.

As the underdog, NC State has gone 4-5-1 vs. the spread this season and they are 2-1 ATS in their last 3 road games. Overall, the Wolfpack are 12-15-1 vs. the spread this year.

North Carolina State’s over/under record this season is 17-10-1. The average over/under line in their games is 146.9 and today’s line of 152.5 is higher than 24 of their games. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 164 points and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 6-4.

The North Carolina Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win

North Carolina enters this game with a record of 22-6, and they have won three games in a row. They are 14-3 in Atlantic Coast Conference play and 8-3 in non-conference games.

At home, the Tar Heels are 14-2 this season, and they have gone 9-1 in their last ten games at home. Their average scoring margin at home is +16.0 points per game.

North Carolina’s ATS record this season is 16-12. At home, they are 9-7 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Tar Heels are 5-5.

Today’s over/under line of 152.5 is lower than the average over/under line in North Carolina’s games this season (153.2). So far, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 140 points compared to their season average of 152 points per game.

North Carolina State Offense Breakdown

In their latest game, North Carolina State’s offense looked good, scoring 83 points against Florida State. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 47.6% and made 13/20 free throws. DJ Horne is leading the team in scoring at 17.5 points per contest. Jayden Taylor has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 11.8 going into the game.

DJ Horne (G) 17.5 3.4 2.3
Jayden Taylor (G) 11.8 3.8 1.3
D.J. Burns (F) 11.8 4.0 2.6

North Carolina Offense Breakdown

In contrast to their season average of 81.5 points per game, the North Carolina had a below average performance. They scored 75 points against Miami (FL) and had a field goal percentage of 44.3%. One area that the North Carolina offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 18th in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 44%.

RJ Davis (G) 21.7 3.7 3.4
Armando Bacot (F) 14.1 10.5 1.6
Harrison Ingram (F) 12.2 9.2 2.2

North Carolina State Team Defense

In terms of defense, North Carolina State is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 72.1 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, North Carolina State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 44.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 35.1% this season.

North Carolina Team Defense

So far, the Tar Heels’ defense is ranked 122nd in the country at 70.4 points per contest. In their most recent game, the North Carolina defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Miami (FL) knocked down 9 three-pointers on their way to 71 points.

Wolfpack vs Tar Heels Trends

  • Across the Wolfpack last ten road games, the team averaged 70 points per game while allowing 75. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 4-5-1, while going 4-6 straight-up.
  • Although North Carolina has a straight up record of 3-2 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 71 points per game in these games.
  • The last five games that North Carolina State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-2-1 while going 1-4 straight up.
  • As the betting favorite, the Tar Heels have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.

Wolfpack vs Tar Heels Prediction

When looking to get a point-spread pick down in this Tar Heels vs. Tar Heels game, our recommendation is to take the Tar Heels at -11.5. Despite our model showing the Tar Heels winning 74-69, we like Wolfpack as our point-spread pick.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 152.5 and given that our model is projecting 143 points between the teams, we like the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.