North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida State Seminoles NCAAB Betting Prediction

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Florida State Seminoles Prediction 1/27/2024

The North Carolina Tar Heels (16-3) travel to face off against the Florida State Seminoles (12-7) on Saturday, January 27th. This game will be played at Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 2:00 ET.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida State Seminoles

Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win

North Carolina has been dominant on the road this season, going 5-2 with an average scoring margin of +6.1 points per game. They have won their last five road games and seven of their last 10. The Tar Heels have been the favorite in 17 of their 19 games, going 15-2 in those contests.

In their last game, North Carolina defeated Wake Forest by a score of 85-64. They have won nine straight games and have a record of 16-3 on the season. The Tar Heels have been even better in ACC play, going 8-0 compared to their 8-3 record in non-conference games.

North Carolina is currently 12-7 against the spread this season, including a 5-2 mark on the road. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Tar Heels have a 7-3 record vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 6-4 in their last 10 contests.

North Carolina’s over/under record for the season sits at 10-9, and the average scoring total in their games is 152.6 points. Today’s over/under line of 154.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this season (153.7). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 148 points, and their OU record in their last 10 games is 4-6.

The Florida State Seminoles Are Coming Off A Win

Florida State enters this game with a 12-7 overall record and a 6-2 mark in Atlantic Coast Conference play. The Seminoles are 8-4 at home this season, and they have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games at home.

As the underdog, Florida State has gone 5-3 this season, and they are 7-4 when favored. They are currently on a three-game road winning streak, and they have gone 4-3 on the road this year.

As the underdog this season, Florida State has a solid ATS mark of 6-2 and they have gone 7-3 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog. At home, the Seminoles have an ATS record of 6-5-1 this year and they are 4-5-1 vs. the spread in their last 10 games at home.

Today’s over/under line of 154.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Florida State’s games this season (150.7). This year, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

North Carolina Offense Breakdown

In their most recent game, the Tar Heels’ offense tallied 85 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 83.5 points per game. Offensively, the Tar Heels have a season long field goal percentage of 45%, which is 160th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 141st in percentage and 181st in three-pointers made.

RJ Davis (G) 21.0 3.7 3.4
Armando Bacot (F) 14.1 10.3 1.4
Harrison Ingram (F) 12.3 8.2 2.5

Florida State Offense Breakdown

Florida State is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 85 points versus Syracuse. This output is higher than their season-average of 77 points per game. Leading the team in scoring is Jamir Watkins, who is averaging 13.9 heading into today’s matchup. Additionally, Darin Green Jr also maintains a PPG average of 12.1 heading into game.

Jamir Watkins (F) 13.9 6.1 3.0
Darin Green Jr (G) 12.1 3.2 0.9
Baba Miller (F) 8.1 5.1 1.5

North Carolina Team Defense

The Tar Heels’ defense is presently ranked 98th nationally, allowing an average of 69.1 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, North Carolina’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 39.6% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 27.6% this season.

Florida State Team Defense

Currently, the Seminoles’ defense holds the 196th rank in the nation, allowing 73.3 points per game. So far, the Florida State defense is giving up an average of 9.4 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.6 times per game (547th).

Tar Heels vs Seminoles Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, North Carolina has an ATS record of 5-0 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 5-0 overall in these games.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Florida State has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 75 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
  • The last ten games that Florida State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 5-5 straight up.
  • North Carolina has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Tar Heels vs Seminoles Prediction

The Seminoles come in as the underdog at +7.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 154.5 and our model has the Tar Heels and Seminoles finishing with a combined 142 points. Our pick is to take the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.