North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia NCAAB Betting Prediction

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Prediction 2/24/2024

The North Carolina Tar Heels (20-6) travel to face off against the Virginia Cavaliers (20-7) on Saturday, February 24th. This game will be played at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville and televised on ESPN. North Carolina is coming off a win in their previous game, while Virginia is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Virginia Tech. Tip-off is set for 4:00 ET.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers

The North Carolina Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been dominant at home this season, going 13-2 with an average scoring margin of +16.8 points per game. They have also been the favorite in 24 of their 26 games, going 19-5 in those contests.

On the road, North Carolina has gone 7-4 this season, with an average scoring margin of +4.1 points per game. Over their last 10 road games, the Tar Heels have gone 7-3.

North Carolina’s ATS record this season is 15-11, and they are 14-10 vs. the spread when favored. Over their last three road games, the Tar Heels are 0-3 ATS, while their road ATS mark this season is 6-5. In their last 10 games as the favorite, North Carolina is 5-5 ATS.

Today’s over/under line of 130 is lower than the average over/under line in North Carolina’s games this season (154). So far, 22 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 162 points.

The Virginia Cavaliers Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Virginia enters this game with an overall record of 20-7, including a 16-1 record at home. They have gone 11-5 in Atlantic Coast Conference play and are coming off a 75-41 loss to Virginia Tech. Over their last three games at home, the Cavaliers have gone 2-1.

As an underdog this season, Virginia has gone 2-4, compared to their 18-3 record as the favorite. For the year, the Cavaliers have gone 20-7, and they are 9-2 in non-conference games. In 27 games, they have an average scoring margin of +15.1 points per game.

As the underdog, Virginia has gone just 2-4 against the spread this season. Their overall ATS mark is 14-12-1, and they are 10-6-1 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Cavaliers have an ATS record of just 2-8. At home this year, Virginia’s ATS mark is 5-4-1.

Virginia’s over/under record for the season sits at 12-15, and today’s line of 130 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this year (126.9). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 116 points compared to their season average of 122.7 points per game.

North Carolina Offense Breakdown

Coming off their recent game, the North Carolina offense tallied 96 points in a matchup against Virginia Tech. Their field goal percentage for the game was 51.5%, and they made 7 threes. The top scorer for the Tar Heels was Armando Bacot with 25 points, while RJ Davis also chipped in with 20 points.

RJ Davis (G) 21.3 3.6 3.6
Armando Bacot (F) 14.6 10.3 1.6
Harrison Ingram (F) 12.5 9.1 2.3

Virginia Offense Breakdown

Most recently, the Virginia offense finished with just 41 points vs. Virginia Tech. For the game, they hit 2/12 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 34%. The top scorer for the Cavaliers was Isaac McKneely with 11 points, while Reece Beekman also added 7 to the scoreboard.

Reece Beekman (G) 13.9 3.2 5.8
Isaac McKneely (G) 12.4 3.1 1.7
Ryan Dunn (G) 8.6 7.0 0.9

North Carolina Team Defense

In terms of defense, North Carolina is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 71.4 points per game. North Carolina’s three-point defense is currently 117th in the country at 6.9 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 41.3% of their shots vs. North Carolina.

Virginia Team Defense

This season, the Virginia defense has been impressive, holding the 3rd position in the country while permitting an average of 58.6 points per contest. The Virginia defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 75 points and allowed Virginia Tech to connect on 8 threes.

Tar Heels vs Cavaliers Trends

  • Through their last three road games, North Carolina has an ATS record of just 0-3. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 75 points per game.
  • The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last home games and 4-1 straight-up.
  • The last three games that Virginia was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
  • Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Tar Heels have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.

Tar Heels vs Cavaliers Prediction

As the underdogs with a spread of +2.5, we recommend going with the Cavaliers on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 130, and our model projects the Tar Heels and Cavaliers to reach a combined total of 142 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.